Day 35 - the gallops are back

Back Again

Ok, I've found a couple I want to back today - I've decided to give a bit of an explanation for my bets so you can see my thought patterns.

The first one is Melbourne Race 3 - 1 Braided General.

It's an interesting race and I'm possibly doing the wrong thing betting on a race down the straight at Flemington, small field helps though as I'd expect all the horses to come down either the flat or grandstand side together. I've got the race down to just 2 chances - my pick Braided General and the David Hayes horse Warm Whispers.

I've gone the way I have because of race experience. Braided General has had the 4 starts for 2 wins and a 2nd. The provincial wins were both by good margins and the 2nd was last start in a race that doesn't look any harder than this one. Importantly, all it's runs have been on Dead rated tracks which is what we have today. Warm Whispers has just the one start for a good win at Moonee Valley. The 3kg claim on my one means I get a 1/2 kg advantage. Melbourne's two leading trainers head to head but at the $4.44 I've locked in I think I've gone the right way.

The second bet is Brisbane race 7 - 14 Albert the Fat

Lots of tips for this one today so it'll start a bit shorter than it should, I'm happy to have locked in $3.60 though. Albert's had 10 starts for 7 wins as is a pretty smart horse. He has won at the track, the distance and the conditions so none of those are a worry. The wide barrier is a concern but he should either be able to slot in or get cover and with the 53 kgs I'm happy to be on him.

There are a few dangers and if I was taking mulitples I'd include Barlinnie, Charming Rouge and Nextgen - most of the dangers being down in the weights.

So there they are, hopefully I've gone the right way - I was tempted to take the 3 shorties at Flemington - Instructor, Ravishing Reward and Keano but they all look like being odds on so I've stayed out and looked for a bit better value.

Anyways, better do some stuff I guess - have a great day All and best of luck if you are having a bet.