Hey All,
Still about, things as per usual haven't gone quite to plan so naturally the easiest way to fix that is to change the plan :)
It's been a busy old start to the year, moved to the new place, went to Armidale to see off Kerry RIP old fella and then a couple of weddings to top things off - Gibbo and Erin and Liz and A2 now happily married, thanks for the invites guys - most enjoyable events
I was plugging away looking at the one bet per race in Sydney and Melbourne and when I wound things up last month I was well in front in Melbourne, well behind in Sydney and behind a little overall. I could possibly make it pay in the longer term but it would be a struggle. I did notice one thing though, when I was isolating the one horse to bet on, more often then not I was looking at the right horses overall i.e. even if I got the race wrong the horses I'd left in late in consideration were getting up, as well as the ones I didn't like missing out.
So that's probably the way to go into the future - stick with the Saturday focus on the horses but look at playing the exotics around the horses I like and hope to jag some decent results, more thinking to be done but that looks the way to go. Adding to that some lays of dodgy favourites and it should be a profitable way to move forward.
Footy season has started - The Raiders are struggling the Swans doing well - hopefully they'll both have strong seasons. There is money to be made on the footy, I have no doubt, just not sure what the best way to do it is
As to my horses, I've got 2 runners tomorrow - Etoile Vitesse in Canberra and Pingus at Bendigo, both have good chances of notching up another win.
So that's basically it, just wanted to touch base to let you know I'm still about
Hope everyone is well
Cheers
Monday, April 25, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Australia Day 2011
Morning All,
Happy Australia Day, a day that makes you think how lucky we are to be Aussies - the best country in the world? I'll have to check out some others to be sure but we'd have to be hard to beat :)
Didn't end up betting on Monday night, went out for dinner and a few drinks instead. Today's action is at Caulfield and Warwick Farm - there's three 2yo races which will make things a little tricky but I'm hoping I'll have my first winning day for the flat stakes trial AND hopefully the exotics.
My best are
Melbourne Race 1 - 1 Cristallo
Melbourne Race 8 - 8 Espirit De Bullet
Sydney Race 6 - 1 Strike One
Sydney Race 8 - 4 Breeze Up
Not sure what will happen with Saturday yet as I'll be traveling up to Armidale for Kerry's send off so possibly won't get to bet.
Good luck to anyone punting today
Happy Australia Day, a day that makes you think how lucky we are to be Aussies - the best country in the world? I'll have to check out some others to be sure but we'd have to be hard to beat :)
Didn't end up betting on Monday night, went out for dinner and a few drinks instead. Today's action is at Caulfield and Warwick Farm - there's three 2yo races which will make things a little tricky but I'm hoping I'll have my first winning day for the flat stakes trial AND hopefully the exotics.
My best are
Melbourne Race 1 - 1 Cristallo
Melbourne Race 8 - 8 Espirit De Bullet
Sydney Race 6 - 1 Strike One
Sydney Race 8 - 4 Breeze Up
Not sure what will happen with Saturday yet as I'll be traveling up to Armidale for Kerry's send off so possibly won't get to bet.
Good luck to anyone punting today
Monday, January 24, 2011
RIP - Kerry
Morning All,
Apologies once again for the non update of results, yesterday was thrown totally out of whack by the terrible news that a mate from university died in a car crash on Saturday.
Kerry was a real character - I'm pretty sure he started at UNE in 1984, I got there in 96 and left in 99, he was still there well after that - he was an institution at the institution. Originally, and I guess always a Kiwi, Kerry was a bistro regular and more often then not ended up running pool comps and the like - we played plenty of games, shared plenty of drinks and lots of laughs. He was only 55, so taken from us way too early - RIP Kerry
Back to business, once again just patchy results - I will now looking at doing a more comprehensive review at the end of the month. In summary, I dropped another 5 units on the weekend after only managing to find 3 winners. Sounds terrible doesn't it? It's not all that bad though, with 6 second place getters - most of which would have seen me finish in front if they had won - and a few other races which were won by horses that were in my top couple I'm confident of turning it around shortly. Overall flat stakes is losing 9 units after 3 meetings - Wednesday is the next day of betting, subject to when I go north to see Kerry off.
The exotics were as frustrating as flat stakes - I ended up missing putting on the Sydney quaddie, would've lost anyway, so doubled up on that Big 6 that missed. In Melbourne I only missed on 1 leg of both the quaddie and Big 6 with Grand Duels winning the 6th - I had the 2nd and 3rd horses. The quaddie paid $2791 and Big 6 $16815 so hitting either would've gave me a nice profit on the day. Overall though, 3 weeks of wipeouts for the exotics and -12 units.
The greyhounds will get another run tonight, currently sitting on -14 units
Oops, look at the time I better get ready for work, have a great day all
Apologies once again for the non update of results, yesterday was thrown totally out of whack by the terrible news that a mate from university died in a car crash on Saturday.
Kerry was a real character - I'm pretty sure he started at UNE in 1984, I got there in 96 and left in 99, he was still there well after that - he was an institution at the institution. Originally, and I guess always a Kiwi, Kerry was a bistro regular and more often then not ended up running pool comps and the like - we played plenty of games, shared plenty of drinks and lots of laughs. He was only 55, so taken from us way too early - RIP Kerry
Back to business, once again just patchy results - I will now looking at doing a more comprehensive review at the end of the month. In summary, I dropped another 5 units on the weekend after only managing to find 3 winners. Sounds terrible doesn't it? It's not all that bad though, with 6 second place getters - most of which would have seen me finish in front if they had won - and a few other races which were won by horses that were in my top couple I'm confident of turning it around shortly. Overall flat stakes is losing 9 units after 3 meetings - Wednesday is the next day of betting, subject to when I go north to see Kerry off.
The exotics were as frustrating as flat stakes - I ended up missing putting on the Sydney quaddie, would've lost anyway, so doubled up on that Big 6 that missed. In Melbourne I only missed on 1 leg of both the quaddie and Big 6 with Grand Duels winning the 6th - I had the 2nd and 3rd horses. The quaddie paid $2791 and Big 6 $16815 so hitting either would've gave me a nice profit on the day. Overall though, 3 weeks of wipeouts for the exotics and -12 units.
The greyhounds will get another run tonight, currently sitting on -14 units
Oops, look at the time I better get ready for work, have a great day all
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Has it been that long
Morning All,
Up early with a few hours overtime at work before going to the races so need to rush - sorry I didn't post results, I thought I had - I'll get it all caught up tomorrow.
In summary - I returned a 4 unit loss on the flat stakes trial, wiped out on the exotics again and dropped 5 units on Monday night - no bets Thursday
Todays best are
Melbourne Race 2 - 4 Winged Charm
Melbourne Race 4 - 8 Cabeza
Sydney Race 2 - 1 Intencion
Sydney Race 7 - 7 Outstandingly
I have a small interest in Pingus in race 3 - she needs to improve 7 or 8 lengths i'd suggest, is 100 to 1 and needs everything to go her way BUT the gear change should definitely help - fingers crossed
Good luck to anyone having a bet
Cheers
Up early with a few hours overtime at work before going to the races so need to rush - sorry I didn't post results, I thought I had - I'll get it all caught up tomorrow.
In summary - I returned a 4 unit loss on the flat stakes trial, wiped out on the exotics again and dropped 5 units on Monday night - no bets Thursday
Todays best are
Melbourne Race 2 - 4 Winged Charm
Melbourne Race 4 - 8 Cabeza
Sydney Race 2 - 1 Intencion
Sydney Race 7 - 7 Outstandingly
I have a small interest in Pingus in race 3 - she needs to improve 7 or 8 lengths i'd suggest, is 100 to 1 and needs everything to go her way BUT the gear change should definitely help - fingers crossed
Good luck to anyone having a bet
Cheers
Friday, January 14, 2011
Saturday number 2 is almost here
Evening All,
Have spend the last few hours studying the form for tomorrow and hopefully I've found all 16 winners - well actually just enough to make a profit will do :)
I'm doing overtime at work to get some extra cash so will be taking Betfair SP prices and hoping they stand up ok. The advantage for anyone reading is you get my tips so here they are
Melbourne - rated on a slow track
Race 1 - 1
Race 2 - 5
Race 3 - 4
Race 4 - 4
Race 5 - 3
Race 6 - 10
Race 7 - 6
Race 8 - 6
Sydney - rated on a slow track
Race 1 - 6
Race 2 - 1
Race 3 - 3
Race 4 - 6
Race 5 - 4
Race 6 - 9
Race 7 - 6
Race 8 - 3
A good days racing.
Greyhounds during the week were nowhere near as controlled as they should've been and I even had a few harness and overseas gallops bets. So some work to do but I still managed 3 units profit on Monday and 4 on Thursday so the damage is back to minus 9 units overall.
Finally, before I get some sleep, my thoughts and best wishes to all those effected by the floods in Queensland etc - awful awful stuff
Cheers
p.s. apologies for not posting more detailed results, it's been a big week with move and all
Have spend the last few hours studying the form for tomorrow and hopefully I've found all 16 winners - well actually just enough to make a profit will do :)
I'm doing overtime at work to get some extra cash so will be taking Betfair SP prices and hoping they stand up ok. The advantage for anyone reading is you get my tips so here they are
Melbourne - rated on a slow track
Race 1 - 1
Race 2 - 5
Race 3 - 4
Race 4 - 4
Race 5 - 3
Race 6 - 10
Race 7 - 6
Race 8 - 6
Sydney - rated on a slow track
Race 1 - 6
Race 2 - 1
Race 3 - 3
Race 4 - 6
Race 5 - 4
Race 6 - 9
Race 7 - 6
Race 8 - 3
A good days racing.
Greyhounds during the week were nowhere near as controlled as they should've been and I even had a few harness and overseas gallops bets. So some work to do but I still managed 3 units profit on Monday and 4 on Thursday so the damage is back to minus 9 units overall.
Finally, before I get some sleep, my thoughts and best wishes to all those effected by the floods in Queensland etc - awful awful stuff
Cheers
p.s. apologies for not posting more detailed results, it's been a big week with move and all
Monday, January 10, 2011
A forced and sensible change of plan
Morning All,
Will post more detailed results over the next couple of days but just a quick update for now
System 1 minus 16 units - (greyhounds next bets tonight)
System 2 minus 2 units (Flat stakes)
System 3 minus 2 units (Saturday lays - being canned)
System 4 (will become system 3) minus 4 units (exotics)
So minus figures all round but my confidence is still high.
Two reasons for dropping the Saturday lays and also the reason I won't be able to update my bets during the day anymore are that firstly I don't have my Nokia N97 mini anymore - was stolen Saturday night :( - luckily the battery was flat so they couldn't do anything with it anyway but still bloody annoying - I've fired my old Nokia back up again. Secondly, when you're running around trying to get the best price worrying about tweeting bets and placing lays just isn't practical or sensible. Focus has to be on getting a price.
Biggest event of what was a big weekend was the move to my new place, it's all very empty at present but I'll furnish in the next few weeks - gotta love that I'm living on my own again :)
Better get ready for work, have a great day all - more detailed write up will follow in the next couple of days
Will post more detailed results over the next couple of days but just a quick update for now
System 1 minus 16 units - (greyhounds next bets tonight)
System 2 minus 2 units (Flat stakes)
System 3 minus 2 units (Saturday lays - being canned)
System 4 (will become system 3) minus 4 units (exotics)
So minus figures all round but my confidence is still high.
Two reasons for dropping the Saturday lays and also the reason I won't be able to update my bets during the day anymore are that firstly I don't have my Nokia N97 mini anymore - was stolen Saturday night :( - luckily the battery was flat so they couldn't do anything with it anyway but still bloody annoying - I've fired my old Nokia back up again. Secondly, when you're running around trying to get the best price worrying about tweeting bets and placing lays just isn't practical or sensible. Focus has to be on getting a price.
Biggest event of what was a big weekend was the move to my new place, it's all very empty at present but I'll furnish in the next few weeks - gotta love that I'm living on my own again :)
Better get ready for work, have a great day all - more detailed write up will follow in the next couple of days
Friday, January 7, 2011
Not the ideal start
Morning All,
Strange old night on the greyhounds, down then up and then finally down again - over confidence and greed will always be a killer, so a little more work to do there BUT I did see it's potential.
System 1 -16 Units
I'm ready to roll tomorrow with Caulfield and Randwick - the Twitter posts from my mobile seem to work as well so I should be able to post what I'm laying and playing in each race
Have a great day
Strange old night on the greyhounds, down then up and then finally down again - over confidence and greed will always be a killer, so a little more work to do there BUT I did see it's potential.
System 1 -16 Units
I'm ready to roll tomorrow with Caulfield and Randwick - the Twitter posts from my mobile seem to work as well so I should be able to post what I'm laying and playing in each race
Have a great day
Sunday, January 2, 2011
2011 - the year it all comes together
Hey All,
Happy New Year :)
Very BIG year coming up - I will be working to a few different systems this year, testing them out and seeing if they are the ones that get me to where I want to be, I am pretty confident they will be.
So here they are
System 1 - Monday and Thursday Greyhounds on Betfair - simple plan, I will be risking 4 units per bet, laying, playing or dutching dogs to make money. The change that will see this succeed is that I'll be buying Sure Pick Ratings each of the 2 nights - not for the ratings as such, although they will play a part, but more so for the form guide. I've said to a few different people in the past that if I had the form I used in the TAB back during my uni days for the greyhounds for use on Betfair I could make money, this is effectively that form. It tells me the running style of the dogs, the speed out of boxes and their records. Hopefully that's all I need to know to make some money - kicks off Thursday the 6th when the holidays are over and everything is back to normal, oh and I get paid :)
System 2 - Saturday Gallops, Sydney and Melbourne - with thanks to STS on the Betfair forum I will be trialling a flat stake betting approach betting 1 unit on each race at each venue (only Sydney and Melbourne metro or standalone substitute meetings) each week. The BIG thing here will be I'll be focusing on 16 (normally) races per week rather than the 100's I have been in the past. I'm still working out if I will bet straight win bets or win and place but will decide before day one which will be this coming Saturday the 8th. I'm not expecting huge profits from this system but I am looking to make a consistent return of 5 to 10% of turnover - if I can do that over the rest of the season, until July 31, I will know I'm onto something.
System 3 - Saturday Gallops - Betfair Lays - once again, 16 races (normally) - 1 Lay per race. I will basically be laying the first horse in the market I don't think can win. Because I will be on course most weeks, I will be laying to a set stake of 1 unit rather than a set liability - it's easier that way.
System 4 - Saturday exotics - 1 unit on each of the Sydney and Melbourne Quaddies and BIG 6's - I will be playing for tiny percentages on these bets early on but hoping to grow my bank and increase the size of the bets as I go - expecting a very low strike rate but hoping to jag some nice results over the course of the year.
And that's pretty well it - the 4 Systems above will be my focus for they year and the ones I want to succeed with. I will have other bets but only on my own horses and at social outings + maybe a bit of poker and an occasional trip to the casino as well - see how all that goes - much less than I have been at any rate.
Major change for me is that I will only be betting on these systems 3 days per week, the balance of the time will be spent making the most out of life. I move to a new place next week and that change will help make these others easier - why would I want to be online having a bet when I could be down at the pub having a drink or two and meeting new people or watching a band etc, living life though - it's time to claim some time back as well as to make a proper, focused, go of the punt.
Exciting year coming up, I hope you all join me for the ride - I'll just post results for Systems 1 and 4 but will look at Twittering my picks for Systems 2 and 3 so if you're interested you can track my progress and maybe even follow me now and then when I get on a roll :)
Anyways, thanks for reading - I hope you're ready for a VERY big 2011 :)
Cheers
Happy New Year :)
Very BIG year coming up - I will be working to a few different systems this year, testing them out and seeing if they are the ones that get me to where I want to be, I am pretty confident they will be.
So here they are
System 1 - Monday and Thursday Greyhounds on Betfair - simple plan, I will be risking 4 units per bet, laying, playing or dutching dogs to make money. The change that will see this succeed is that I'll be buying Sure Pick Ratings each of the 2 nights - not for the ratings as such, although they will play a part, but more so for the form guide. I've said to a few different people in the past that if I had the form I used in the TAB back during my uni days for the greyhounds for use on Betfair I could make money, this is effectively that form. It tells me the running style of the dogs, the speed out of boxes and their records. Hopefully that's all I need to know to make some money - kicks off Thursday the 6th when the holidays are over and everything is back to normal, oh and I get paid :)
System 2 - Saturday Gallops, Sydney and Melbourne - with thanks to STS on the Betfair forum I will be trialling a flat stake betting approach betting 1 unit on each race at each venue (only Sydney and Melbourne metro or standalone substitute meetings) each week. The BIG thing here will be I'll be focusing on 16 (normally) races per week rather than the 100's I have been in the past. I'm still working out if I will bet straight win bets or win and place but will decide before day one which will be this coming Saturday the 8th. I'm not expecting huge profits from this system but I am looking to make a consistent return of 5 to 10% of turnover - if I can do that over the rest of the season, until July 31, I will know I'm onto something.
System 3 - Saturday Gallops - Betfair Lays - once again, 16 races (normally) - 1 Lay per race. I will basically be laying the first horse in the market I don't think can win. Because I will be on course most weeks, I will be laying to a set stake of 1 unit rather than a set liability - it's easier that way.
System 4 - Saturday exotics - 1 unit on each of the Sydney and Melbourne Quaddies and BIG 6's - I will be playing for tiny percentages on these bets early on but hoping to grow my bank and increase the size of the bets as I go - expecting a very low strike rate but hoping to jag some nice results over the course of the year.
And that's pretty well it - the 4 Systems above will be my focus for they year and the ones I want to succeed with. I will have other bets but only on my own horses and at social outings + maybe a bit of poker and an occasional trip to the casino as well - see how all that goes - much less than I have been at any rate.
Major change for me is that I will only be betting on these systems 3 days per week, the balance of the time will be spent making the most out of life. I move to a new place next week and that change will help make these others easier - why would I want to be online having a bet when I could be down at the pub having a drink or two and meeting new people or watching a band etc, living life though - it's time to claim some time back as well as to make a proper, focused, go of the punt.
Exciting year coming up, I hope you all join me for the ride - I'll just post results for Systems 1 and 4 but will look at Twittering my picks for Systems 2 and 3 so if you're interested you can track my progress and maybe even follow me now and then when I get on a roll :)
Anyways, thanks for reading - I hope you're ready for a VERY big 2011 :)
Cheers
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