Sunday, May 31, 2009

Exotically exotic

Morning All,

Managed to find a couple of value winners from the 4 rated races yesterday for a small profit as well as getting results for both the quinellas and exactas. They could definitely be the way to go into the future.

Winners were

Pillar in race 8 at $6.90 (rated at $6.60)
Intruder in race 9 at $4.50 (rated at $3.20)

Also had the other 2 winners in my top 5 but both were under my odds

Results Yesterday

Out - $233
In - $245
Profit - $13
Quinella profit - $47
Exacta profit - $99
Trifecta loss - $108

Results Overall

Out - $9720
In - $9263
Loss - $457 (LOT 4.70%)
Quinella profit $229 (POT 13.17%)
Exacta profit $563 (POT 16.19%)
Trifecta loss $2413 (LOT 23.11%)

Results Melbourne only

Out - $5613
In - $5419
Loss - $193 (LOT 3.44%)
Quinella profit $151 (POT 15.14%)
Exacta profit $206 (POT 10.28%)
Trifecta loss $42 (LOT 0.71%)

That's 100 races in Melbourne / Victoria now - so starting to build a decent sample size, will be very interesting to see how these figures stand up for the rest of the season. I'd love to see all the results in profit by the end of July but won't hold my breath.

Ratings Challenge results aren't out yet but Len hit a couple of winners and will kick further away from the field, I think I'll just hold onto second.

I've had a little bit of luck, skill? Probably a bit of both and managed to hit a very small percentage of yesterdays Big 6 - it's amazing to think that even though only one of the winners paid over $10 the Big 6 paid $130k. Like I said, I only got a very small percentage but I'm wrapped and it means the possibility of having a bank to start with come August 1 and the new season is MUCH higher :)

I'll be back in the next couple of days with updated scores from the ratings challenge.

Have a great day

Saturday, May 30, 2009

I hate hangovers

Morning All,

Home at 3amish - I'm whacked. I've rated the Ratings Challenge venue of Bairnsdale but that's it for today I'm afraid, it's back to bed for me.

Bairnsdale is in Victoria though so the results will count as Melbourne only as well.

Race 6

HAMMERBLOW $3.4
SIR ALJAY $3.5
ABITOFUN (NZ) $9.4
KINGS AND ACES $13.1
JET TORQUE $20.9

Race 7

DANAMAN (NZ) $2.7
SOVEREIGN TOY $3.1
SARATOGA $12.7
FILOU SHOT $12.8
LEVANT $16.6

Race 8

LAGO BUOY $2.0
PILLAR $6.6
FLAMING GONZALES $17.5
GALAWAY GLOW $18.3
GUNBUSTER $19.8

Race 9

NADOBE $3.2
INTRUDER $3.2
KNIGHT IN TIGHTS $15.1
WARRIGAL TOM $15.6
SONIC HIT $19.1

Good luck if you are having a bet :)

Sunday, May 24, 2009

One step forward, two steps back ....

Evening All,

Another losing day yesterday with just the 2 winners, although if you shop for better prices there was a third there as well. It's frustrating but that's how punting is - I just need to find a little more consistency and a few more winners.

The winners yesterday were

Caulfield Race 5 - Driffield Gold @ $2.20 (rated $1.40)

Doomben Race 5 - Apache Cat @ $3.20 (rated at $2.80)

Great to see Apache Cat win another Group 1 race and crack the $4 million in prize money, a very popular horse.

Here are the summaries

Overall - yesterday

Out - $577
In - $274
Loss - $303
Quinella loss $3
Exacta Profit $48
Trifecta Loss $51

Melbourne Only - yesterday

Out - $257
In - $160
Loss - $97
Quinella Loss $1
Exacta Profit $9
Trifecta Loss $211

Overall

Out - $9487
In - $9018
Loss - $470 (LOT 4.95%)
Quinella Profit $182 (POT 10.72%)
Exacta Profit $464 (POT 13.66%)
Trifecta Loss $2305 (LOT 22.60%)

Overall - Melbourne Only

Out - $5380
In - $5174
Loss - $206 (LOT 3.83%)
Quinella Profit $104 (POT 10.88%)
Exacta Profit $107 (POT 5.55%)
Trifecta Profit $66 (POT 1.14%)

Some bright spots but lots of improvement needed as well.

In the ratings challenge I've held second spot but fallen a bit further behind. Luckily prices for the challenge are the best available so I hit one winner - Darth in race 6.

Table is

Len - $1062.45
Me - $707.21
Cabbie - $550.37

John L - ($496.98)
Ken - ($646.64)
John D - ($1520.51)

4 weeks to go so plenty of time - I need to find more winners!!!

Swans and Raiders both had wins today - GO YOU GOOD THINGS :)

Have a great week

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Almost made double figures

Morning All,

I've rated 9 races today - the quaddies at Caulfield and the Sunshine Coast (ratings challenge venue) and the Doomben 10000. Hoping to hit enough winners to get me in front overall, lets see if I can.

Here they are

Caulfield Race 5

DRIFFIELD GOLD $1.4
DIAMONDSONDINSIDE $11.1
OUR SMOKING JOE $19.4
POISED TO WIN $21.4
MOMENT IN TIME $31.0

Race 6

MACEDONIAN (NZ) $3.5
AIGLON $3.5
SARANAH GOLD $10.7
DANCE PARTNER $12.5
COCHON D'OR (NZ)$25.1

Race 7

JOHNNY FIASCO $3.1
TETSU GAMA $4.6
NUCLEAR ROO $8.7
UNCLE IVAN $9.7
ALLIED FORCE $12.2

Race 8

SWIFT BAY (NZ) $4.8
WOJCINSKI $4.8
THORN LAKE (NZ) $4.8
TEMPEST TOST $4.8
BURLY GRIFFEN $17.1

Sunshine Coast Race 5

MARG'S GOLD $1.7
MUDDY MILLIE $7.9
IMPENETRABLE $12.8
PRINCE VALLEN $19.3
DELTARARA $24.0

Race 6

HEZA GURU $3.2
MEGA MOUNTAIN $4.8
DAD'S BLUE BOY $11.2
DARTH $11.2
THREE GONGS $21.6

Race 7

TEEYORA $3.6
KELLINA'S SHADOW $3.6
MOUBASSIN $6.4
GOLD SOVEREIGN $7.0
BLACK SHEEP $23.3

Race 8

URASED A STAR $2.9
CANDYJESS $3.8
PRINCEOFTHEPLAZA $8.2
RAGING RASTUS $20.0
FREAKISH $22.8

Doomben 10000

APACHE CAT $2.8
SOMETHING ANYTHING $6.3
BANK ROBBER $9.8
DUPORTH $18.7
COURT COMMAND $20.1

Good luck if you are having a bet :)

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Short but sweet

Morning All,

It was only 4 races but when you find 3 value winners it makes it all worthwhile :)

Winners were

Mine in Time at $3.60 (Rated at $1.70)

Penrickson at $5.20 (Rated at $2.90)

Allervite at $15.30 (Rated at $13.30)

Losses on the exotics but closing in on a profit overall so I'm pretty happy - I won't update the Melbourne results today as there is no change.

Yesterday

Out - $252
In - $504
Profit - $252
Quinellas Lost $11
Exactas Lost $28
Trifectas Lost $240

Overall

Out - $8910
In - $8744
Loss - $167 (LOT 1.88%)
Quinellas Profit $185 (POT 11.50%)
Exactas Profit $416 (POT 12.93%)
Trifectas Loss $2254 (LOT 23.33%)

Down to a loss of less than 2% on tab prices, not too bad at all :)

Good news on the ratings challenge as well, I've only seen the unofficial results but don't expect them to change - here's the new table

Len - $1114.81
Me - $1014.15
Cabbie - $280.77

John L - ($148.32)
Ken - ($325.47)
John D - ($1636.93)

So second place and only $100 down with 5 weeks to go :)

Next week is the Sunshine Coast Cushion track - should be very interesting, will the ratings hold up on the artificial surface???

Anyways, happy days - with testing progressing well.

Have a great week All

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Morning All,

Bad news I'm afraid, just the 4 races rated (the Challenge races) because I need to go to work for a bit - I HATE working on a Saturday but hey, you've gotta do what you've gotta do.

So it's the quaddie legs at Canterbury

Race 5

MINE IN TIME $1.7
ANGEL'S BREATH $10.6
MARGHAM $13.9
ONTHELOOKOUT $14.7
BACK ON TOP $22.0

Race 6

PENRICKSON (NZ)$2.9
DERIVATIVE RECEIPT $4.1
PRINCE ARTHUR $10.8
JOKU $17.4
KEEPIN' THE DREAM (NZ) $25.1

Race 7

STARRING TO WIN (NZ) $3.2
MONTEREY ROAD $6.8
THE COSSACK $8.7
NOBLE EDICT $12.5
MARKWORTHY $13.5

Race 8

HUNTERS HOST $3.2
WELKOM GOLD $3.7
THE TAKE $13.3
ALLERVITE $13.3
GUMNUTS $21.8

Assuming Gumnuts is in Race 8 - as I write this it's still nominated for race 7 as well and I thought the scratchings were finalised - weird stuff.

Anyways, sorry again - better get ready

Good luck if you're having a bet

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Better late then never :)

Hey All,

Sorry about the delays, I lost a lot of time the last few days looking at ways to automate my ratings more via excel and access, it's not easy but I am making progress.

Before I put up the results I need to confess that I just found a mistake in the Melbourne Only spreadsheet - I wasn't summing all the fields and as a result the profit on the quinellas and exactas has fallen away sorry about that - I will be more aware of it in the future. They are still in the black though :)

Ok, results - just the 3 winners but all at nice overs

Hawkesbury Race 7 - Testimonial Won at $18.30 (rated at $2.80)
Flemington Race 8 - Zupacool Won at $9.10 (rated at $2.50)
Belmont Race 5 - Ma Ma Machine Won at $3.40 (rated at $2.30)

Leading to ...

Overall for Saturday

Out - $728
In - $1179
Profit - $451
Quinella Lost $86
Exacta Lost $176
Trifecta Lost $675

Melbourne Only for Saturday

Out - $275
In - $386
Profit - $111
Quinella Loss $40
Exacta Loss $80
Trifecta Loss $240

Overall

Out - $8658
In - $8240
Loss - $419 (LOT 4.84%)
Quinella Profit $196 (POT 12.50%)
Exacta Profit $444 (POT 14.15%)
Trifecta Loss $2014 (LOT 21.38%)

Overall Melboure Only

Out - $5123
In - $5014
Loss - $109 (LOT 2.13%)
Quinella Profit $105 (POT 11.46%)
Exacta Profit $98 (POT 5.30%)
Trifecta Profit $277 (POT 5.01%)

Best thing about the weekend was that the LOT % on the ratings themselves came back a bit to less than 5% - when you consider that I can probably find 8 - 10% by getting best price instead of NSW Tab that's very encouraging.

As to the Ratings Challenge - I've fallen back a bit further behind Len and been passed by Cabbie who moves to second.

Here's the table at the half way point

1 - Len $926.25
2 - Cabbie $426.55
3 - Me $340.76

4 - John L ($95.48)
5 - Ken ($401.02)
6 - John D ($1334.51)

Well that's done, apologies again for the delays

Enjoy the rest of your week :)

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Running late - keep waiting...

Hey All,

Sorry about this, no results yet - I've been absorbed in the worlds of Excel and Access and trying to build a database, pretty painful stuff.

I did hit 3 value winners including a couple at good overs so there will be a profit - I'll try and do the update tomorrow.

Sorry again

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Go West ....

Afternoon All,

I've rated 12 races today including the quaddie legs for Flemington, Hawkesbury and the ratings challenge venue - Belmont (hence the title, and the fact I can't get the song out of my head!!!)

So here they are

Belmont

Race 5

MA MA MACHINE $2.3
RADIANT PRINCE $7.7
EMPIRE WEST $11.4
MCDRUMIN $11.6
VERSAINT $13.5

Race 6

TOP OF THE POPS $4.0
DANTES STAR $4.0
MONACO PRINCE $9.2
EXIHT $9.4
FLIRTSON $14.4

Race 7

CLASSIC LAD $4.2
GAMROY $4.2
INARTICULATE $5.1
LEXICON GOLD $14.5
LUCKY TRAINER $22.1

Race 8

BANNER STORM $2.4
MCLURCH $9.1
WESTERN FORCE $12.1
GEYSER PEAK $12.2
EUCLASSY THING $18.5

Flemington

Race 5

WE WONDER $3.0
OKAY OKY $3.0
SCENIC SCENE $23.4
RARE POPPI $25.4
MOCK $29.3

Race 6

PRINCE VITALITY $3.3
ELMORE $5.1
VINDICATING $9.3
KINDLY $11.3
FLYING MONTY $12.3

Race 7

RAVISHING REWARD $3.8
SHIBBOLETH $3.8
HIFALUTIN $10.5
AFTERBURN $14.8
TELL THE STORY $19.3

Race 8

ZUPACOOL $2.5
BLOOD DIAMOND $10.6
WASHINGTON (NZ) $13.3
DANCE PARTNER $18.9
KOBAN $19.8

Hawkesbury

Race 5

LYNCEAN ACADEMY$3.4
BELLAGIO WYNN $3.4
LOCKMAR $3.9
ARLINGTON $23.4
DANEHILL SMILE $32.6

Race 6

JIALE $2.5
HOTHAVANANIGHTS $6.4
ADMIRALS HONOUR $9.4
YESTERDAY $11.5
THE ASTRONOMER $18.8

Race 7

TESTIMONIAL $2.8
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD $5.0
MOUNT VERDE $12.2
GERGIS $15.0
THEOPHORUS $21.0

Race 8

AUSWORLD $2.6
CATACAOS $3.8
LUIGI THE BRAVE $17.1
BOLDTON $17.4
HUNDRED WATT $20.2

Fingers crossed for a winner or 12 :)

Good luck if you are having a bet

GO THE SWANNIES

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Slipping and sliding but holding firm

Morning All,

Another losing day for the ratings on the primary, well what was meant to be the primary measure, of winners. Exotics went ok again though so the black figures remain black - maybe they are the way to make money from this thing down the track.

So just the one winner yesterday

Gold Coast Race 5 - Chakvetadze rated at $3.70 paid $5

And the rest of the figures

Yesterday Overall

Out - $393
In - $137
Loss - $257
Quinella Profit $46
Exacta Profit $54
Trifecta Profit $1386

Yesterday Melbourne Only

Out - $191
In - $0
Loss - $191
Quinella Loss $25
Exacata Loss $59
Trifecta Profit $62

Overall

Out - $7930
In - $7061
Loss - $870 (LOT 10.97%)
Quinella Profit $282 (POT 19.46%)
Exacta Profit $620 (POT 21.39%)
Trifecta Loss $1339 (LOT 15.39%)

Overall Melbourne Only

Out - $4848
In - $4628
Loss - $220 (LOT 4.54%)
Quinella Profit $271 (POT 30.84%)
Exacta Profit $413 (POT 23.44%)
Trifecta Profit $517 (POT 9.78%)

It was a tough day overall with roughies that I most didn't find winning 3 of the races so I'm not feeling too bad about it. The nice black figures around the quinella and exacta could be showing the way to go in the future - around 20% POT must be a money maker if the figures stand up.

Ratings Challenge results aren't out yet but I'll lose ground this week - Len hit the winner of the last to offset me hitting the first and also got a better price, I should still hold second place though. I'll post the results once they are through.

Have a great day All

p.s. go the Swannies

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Hey it's May

Morning All,

Looks like May is here, how fast is the year going!!!

Before I start today I just wanted to say RIP Sunline - she was a real Champion, I watched her win a Cox Plate and Doncaster Handicap live and she was just awesome - racing needs more like her.

Now for today, I've just done the 8 races 4 at Caulfield and 4 at the Gold Coast which is the venue for the tipping challenge.

Caulfield first

Race 5

INSTRUCTOR $2.8
GOLD SALUTE $3.7
SOUND JOURNEY $12.9
COMMAND PRINCE $14.6
DELAYEDREACTION $17.3

Race 6

HAPPY GLEN $4.0
EGO'S DARE $4.0
HERE DE ANGELS $5.8
MRS WATERS$12.3
CAPE DANGER $24.0

Race 7

MOZAMBIQUE $5.6
CARNEGGAN DASHER $5.6
ROCK HOME LATE $5.6
MEMORISE $6.1
OKUMA $8.4

Race 8

RAVISHING REWARD $3.6
LALETTA $5.2
ROYAL CHARADES $5.9
NEW YEARS EVE $11.1
BRAZEN HUSSEY $15.9

And the Gold Coast

Race 5

CHAKVETADZE $3.7
FELINE FLYER $7.1
DOONBAH STAR $11.0
LEAPFROG $11.7
DESUETUDE $16.3

Race 6

IMVULA $3.3
THE SPORTSMAN (NZ) $3.3
SCENIC SHOT $6.5
MISSION CRITICAL $26.5
IZONIT (NZ) $35.0

Race 7

EL CAMBIO $3.5
MR SLICK (NZ)$3.5
RASMUSSEN $8.9
RIGHTFULLY YOURS $18.4
HEY ELVIS $30.5

Race 8

ZERO ROCK $3.3
BEAMING $10.3
COURT $11.0
DANCE GIRL DANCE $12.6
INSISTENCE $16.7

Fingers crossed for a few winners.

Good Luck if you're betting :)