October 25 - Cox Plate Day, the "best" race in the spring

Hey All

Sorry for the rushed message yesterday - bit of a false start on the change, with some more work to be done.  Either way, I will revisit everything after the carnival and my 3 weeks off in November.

Best bet last night was shocking - they have been ever since I posted the figures, just a coincidence?

Great day of racing today, hoping to find a winner

My best are

Melbourne - Race 5 Number 1 Precedence

Old faithful - loves the track and distance and seems to be going as well as ever.  Not a lot of depth in this and the main dangers have to get around the track. 

Sydney - Race 8 Number 10 Boss Lane

Awkwardly drawn but hoping he rolls forward with the light weight, wins if he finds a spot against a average bunch.

I like the favourite in the Cox Plate - Fawkner has had the perfect lead up and should get the run of the race just off the hot pace.

Good luck to anyone having a bet

October 24 - Manikato Stakes - ALL CHANGE!!!

Hey All

Group 1 racing tonight at Moonee Valley with the Manikato - I like Terravista, great race though with lots of chances

I've decided to put the system on hold for now after being inspired to go back to something else I've been working on.  More on that over the weekend.

My best tonight at Moonee Valley is Lady Cumquat in Race 2, jumps in 5 minutes - no best bet for Canterbury


Gotta go, good luck if you're betting

October 18 - Caulfield Cup Day

Hey All

The carnival is really heating up now with today being Caulfield Cup Day. It's a crucial day in the scheme of things as all the main contenders for the Group 1 races in Melbourne Cup Week will be going around.  A great day of racing in it's own right though.

Dropped the 10 units on Wednesday, with my picks not even running a place so that means I'm down 135 units for the season now.

My best today

Caulfield - Race 7 Number 7 Vilanova

Interesting race with the main chance in Brambles scratched so it can run in the Caulfield Cup itself.  Opens the door a bit and I'm happy to be on this Group 2 winning 4yo gelding who hasn't got a great winning record overall but is ultra consistent. 

Randwick Race 7 Number 3 - Fine Bubbles

Racing in great form after winning the Tibbie at Newcastle before running a good 5th last start behind some very smart ones in the Golden Pendant.  Looks beautifully in with the 3kg claim here.

The Group 3 Northerly stakes is on at Ascot today as well so it will be on my list of races to play.

Thanks to Beteasy for the free $50 bet, it was too hard to resist so I've snapped it up and plonked it on Admire Ratki at $11 in the Caulfield Cup.  Wasn't an easy decision but I wanted something $10 plus to make it worth while and the others I liked had negatives with bad barriers and an overseas jockey.

Best of luck if you're having a bet

October 15 - Ladies Day Vase

Hey All

Today was a Group 1 day in the past but with the Thousand Guineas moving to Guineas Day we're just left with a Group 3 race to highlight the card.

Open race - 1600m mares.  I've got it down to just the 3 chances all at double figure odds - Viadana, Keep De Rose and Spirit of Heaven

Lost again on the weekend but only 6 units, down 125 for the season now.  Both best bets went down as well so not a good result.

Hoping to bounce back today, best of luck if you're having a bet

October 11 - Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas and Spring Champion Day

Hey All

Great day of racing in Melbourne today with the best of the 3yos stepping out in Thousand Guineas for the fillies and Caulfield Guineas for the colts and geldings. Add to that the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney with the super impressive First Seal taking on the boys and it's a classic day for the 3 year olds.

The main system continues to frustrate with another losing day last week and a 42 unit loss meaning I'm down 119 for the season. Needs a bit of turning around so I went looking for a positive and it wasn't very hard to find - my best bets.  I had a feeling they were going pretty well and doing the figures has confirmed that

Melbourne

3 from 11 or 27.27% for a POT of 7.73%

Sydney

5 from 10 or 50% for a POT of 82.60%

Overall

8 from 21 or 38.10% for a POT of 43.38%

Small numbers but very promising and something I will start to focus on a bit more from here.  All the tips have been posted here with results calculated using Betfair best of 4 or best of 5 depending which was available.

Todays best are

Caulfield - Race 8 number 6 Lumosty

The main lead up race doesn't look to be anything special so I'm looking outside that to a horse coming off a 9 length win in a Sale maiden.  Should jump and run and be very hard to catch

Randwick - Race 2 number 2 Best Case

With the other form race being a 1900 benchmark 85 here a fortnight ago I'm happy to be on a horse stepping up in distance and down in class from the 1500m Group 2 Shannon Quality.  Looking for the 2000m now and should get a great run off a fairly hot pace.

Best of luck if you're having a bet

4 October - Epsom and Turnbull Day

Hey All

Lovely day in both Melbourne and Sydney - spring has really sprung, time to find some winners.

I am a bit behind with my results database but on interim figures I had a loss of 52 units last Saturday to give me a loss overall for the season of 77 units - that would be a 4 unit loss for August if the figures all hold up when I do the reconciliation.

So another losing month but a much better result and on the way to winning one in October.

My best bet went shocking on Sunday so hopefully they bounce back today.

Flemington - Race 8 - Number 2 Bonaria

Ran a great 4th last start against better mares. Goes well track, distance and conditions and looks the one here

Randwick - Race 4 - Number 3 Brazen Beau

Interesting race but with the favourite coming back from the 1400m I'm happy to go with the horse coming out of a very quick Flemington straight 6

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 28 - Sir Rupert Clarke

Hey All

A day of highs and lows yesterday - the low, Sydney in the Grand Final - they didn't show up unfortunately - that's footy.  The high, another winning day at the races and things finally look like they are turning around

Yesterday's profit was a very nice 67 units meaning I'm now only 15 units down for the season.  Hoping I make it 3 for 3 for the weekend today and get into profit overall.  Tough day to do it though with lots of chances in many of the races.  Focus is on Caulfield, they can go around at Warwick Farm without me

My best bet won again yesterday and is doing well

Caulfield Race 1 - 1 Reckless Assassin

Dropped back from 2000m to 1600m last start where she was in a race turned upside down by a mid race move by an outsider going clear of the field.  Should get a good run on the pace today, steps back up to a more suitable 1800m and the 2 kg claim clinches the deal.  Happy to be on

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 27 - Grand Final Day - GO SWANNIES

Hey All

Beautiful sunny day here in Melbourne, perfect for the AFL Grand Final - really confident my Swannies will win today :)

Punting wise, back into winning form last night at Moonee Valley with a 57 unit profit putting me back at -82 units for the season.  My best win for the season so far and hopefully a sign of things to come.

My best bet, Almalad, won as well once again showing the Sydney 3 year olds will possibly dominate the Melbourne Spring. Scary thing for the Melbourne horses is he isn't even the best one from up there.

Just betting on Rosehill today - will whack my bets on early and head off to the pub to watch the footy

My best is in the first

Rosehill Race 1 - 2 Sweynesse

Coming off a win in the Spring Stakes in Newcastle, a race that often throws up some good form. 3 wins from 3 starts should become 4 from 4 after today

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 26 - Moir Stakes, Grand Final eve

Hey All

Struggling a bit with another big losing day last Saturday, will soldier on though and hopefully see things turn around very soon.  -54 unit and -139 units overall for the season now.  It was a tough old day at the races for many though, I definitely wasn't alone

Things are a little different this week with Group 1 races tonight at Moonee Valley and Caulfield on Sunday and then Group racing at Rosehill tomorrow along with the AFL Grand Final and the mighty Swannies going for another flag :)

Plan is to go just the 3 feature meetings, so one each of the next 3 days. 

My best tonight is

Moonee Valley Race 7 - 1 Almalad

Won a Group 1 over 1600m in June after stepping up from 1200m, goes the more traditional 1400m - 1600m tonight coming off a 1.6 len defeat in the Golden Rose.  I think the Sydney 3yos will be stronger again this year so this will be the first test against Melbourne's best.

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 20 - Gerorge Main / Underwood Stakes Day

Hey All

Great day of racing with Group 1 races in both states and excellent cards to back them up.  Sure they are small fields at Randwick but there are very good horses running that will play major roles during the spring.

Quick clean up of Newcastle - found the Tibbie winner in Fine Bubbles but unfortunately didn't get the $25 mentioned.  Went Betfair SP again and ended up a bit over $15. Nothing in the Cup so I'll cop a 2 unit loss which is -6 over the 2 days.  Still a day behind with my results but on figures for now that will put me on -85 for the season, adjusted up until 6 September.

Today's best

Caulfield - race 6 number 1 Spillway

Naturalism Stakes and I'm on the top one - 3rd up, steps up to the 2000m and coming off a great 4th behind Dissident in a Group 1 last start.

Randwick - race 6 number 10 Panzer Division

Going the 3yo against the older horses in the George Main - will run them along and be very hard to beat with the 50.5kg. 

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 18 - Newcastle Cup Day

Hey All

1 out of 2 correct yesterday for a 4 unit loss - bad shopping there taking Betfair SP which paid unders.  Would've lost a little anyway as I got the Newmarket very wrong - haven't seen the race yet but apparently they walked.

Two group races again today, here's my plays

Race 6 - Tibbie Stakes

I've got it down to 2 that I should be able to back each way.  Bouzy Rouge is flying at present winning a listed race at Wyong last start, can step up in grade today.  My other should pay $25 or so, Fine Bubbles - coming off Brisbane form, outsider with a decent chance

Race 7 - Newcastle Cup

3 chances imo - Travolta will appreciate being back on top of the ground, Multilateral is a good consistent stayer and Oriental Lady will give them something to catch

Good luck if you're having a bet

17 September - Newcastle Newmarket Day

Hey All

Couple of group races in Newcastle so having a bet today

Race 6 - Spring Stakes

Sweynesse was impressive winning last start and can win again here. Monteux looks the biggest danger so will back the both of them.  Willing to risk the second favourite High Above

Race 7 - Newcastle Newmarket

Always a good race and the form that can stand up during the spring. Top pick is the bottom one - Spy Decoder which has form behind the most impressive Chautauqua.  Slow Pace can run a race at double figure odds first up. The one that I'll just leave out, unless i can get prices to back all 3, is Mr Chard

Back again tomorrow, good luck if you're betting

August Summary and tidy up

Hey All

Back on track with a win of 14 units yesterday - still working things out but it was nice to have another winning day, hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

One of my two best bets, Rich Enuf, won as well so I'm sure my best bets would be in front - I'll have to work that out one day.

Main reason for the post today is that I've finally got my results database up to date, as at the end of August.  It's annoying to do but needs to be done, I'll catch up the last 2 weeks this week.  I did find a couple of mistakes in the process so the figures have changed a little on what I've been posting.

The first was a 5 unit refund on a bet that didn't come through until the Monday and I missed when working things out.  The other was an additional 2 unit bet on a horse by mistake - I've taken it out to make the numbers balance. More care needed going forward.

Here are the figures

5 Saturdays

2/8/14        4.5 units
9/8/14        5 units
16/8/14     -65 units
23/8/14     -4.5 units
30/8/14     -13 units

Overall -73 units (LOT -8.59%)

Total races 85
Winning races 39
Strike Rates 45.88%

Lays - loss of 15.5 units

So not the nicest figures.  The loss of 65 units of the 16th was the killer but days like that are part of punting, unfortunately. The strike rate is too low as I back multiple horses in most races, needs to lift.

As you know, I've already dumped the lays - not only did I lose on them but they also meant I had less on my winners in those races, when I found them.  This change will be known of as the Tiger Tees Tweak :)

There are 4 group races in Newcastle this week - 2 on Wednesday, 2 on Thursday so I'll be back then

All the best

13 September - not quite right

Hey All

Another losing week last week but I'm not too worried because it was mostly because I messed up my staking.  Obviously need to find some more winners as well but I think I'm on the right track.

Week -20 units
Season -100 units

Wiped out with my best bets last week as well so looking at bouncing back

Best for this week are

Flemington - Race 6 - 5 Rich Enuf

Was super impressive at Moonee Valley last start running good time and winning very well. Has to handle the straight but I'll gamble on that

Rosehill - Race 1 - 6 Sensualism

Will be suited by the drier track and looks beautifully place to back up the win here 2 starts ago. 

Good luck if you're having a bet

6 September - wrong way, go back

Hey All

Another losing week to finish the month has sent me back to the drawing board and the realisation that I've gone the wrong way.

Numbers first - dropped another 20 units to finish on -80 units for the month

In looking back through my results two things stood out - the first was that I'd lost on my lays, only 4.5 units but it was a loss.  It was also apparent that laying a horse in a race meant I was having less on the winner if I found it.  Secondly, I looked at my place results and was surprised to see so many 2nds and 3rds many of which were $5 or the better for the win.

So, based on that, it's time for another tweak to start September and the spring proper - I'll now be betting each way if my selection is paying $5 or more and dropping my lays.  Let's see how that goes.

My best at Caulfield last week lost on protest, the one in Sydney was ordinary.

My best today are

The Valley Race 2 - 1 Text'n'Hurley

Loves the mile at The Valley and looks very well in with the 3kg claim

Randwick Race 7 - 1 Tiger Tees

Looks the leader, loves the wet and beautifully placed to make it 3 in a row

Good luck if you're having a bet

August 30 - last chance for the month

Hey All

Memsie Stakes day, the first group 1 of the new season - a great day of racing

Little loss last week -4.5 units so -60 overall for the month and the season now. Hoping to turn things around today with plenty of good horses running

Wiped out with my best with a 2nd and an incredibly unlucky 4th on protest - Better Land should have won the race easily

Today's Best

Caulfield Race 1 - 4 Amicus

Comes down from Sydney for Waller and finds a very winnable race

Rosehill - Race 4 - 1 Oh So Adorable

Very good first up, has won on the heavy and the 3kg claim helps heaps

Good luck if you're having a bet

August 23 - hoping to bounce back

Hey All

Racing can be incredibly frustrating at times and last week was one of those. Nothing went quite to plan and I ended up having a shocker after going in feeling pretty good about my selections.  I'm now well behind for the season but it's early days with plenty of time to turn things around.

August 16 -65 units
Overall -55.5 units

On a more positive note, one of my 2 best won so they keep going well


Today's best

Moonee Valley Race 3 - 3 Solsay

Loves the track, loves the distance and gets the run of the race up on the pace.  Looks beautifully placed in this and will be a better price due to there being a few others people will give a chance

Randwick Race 3 - 7 Better Land

Always tricky with young horses on heavy tracks but this one was a cracking run last start and won it's first on a heavy.  Needs a win to qualify for the Golden Rose and I think he gets that here.

Good luck if you're having a bet

August 16 - Spring is just around the corner

Hey All

Another small win last week to go back to back with thanks to Tony and Jake Noonan combining with Zevada to get me there in the lucky last.

+ 5 units for the week
+ 9.5 units for the year

1 of my 2 best got home in Sweet Idea so that's 3 out of 4 now for the season.

Today's best

Caulfield Race 2 - 6 Lord Durante

Looks to get a soft lead here and although the last little bit will be a worry I think he is the one. Beat the other favourite in Bagman last time they met and will again despite the 1.5kg weight turn-around

Rosehill Race 6 - 5 Entirely Platnium

Huge worry today in Sydney is the weather, when will the rain arrive and how much of it will there be???  This one should win either way - settles on the pace and is too classy for these

Good luck to anyone having a bet

August 9 - 2nd up from a spell

Hey All

Small win last week thanks to not getting on Liberation which lost the first in Sydney on protest.  Funny how things work

4.5 units up for the year

Both my best bets posted here won last week, shame no one saw them :)

Best for this week are

Flemington Race 2 - 3 Eclair Samba

Has form behind Backbone which won well last start.  Track, distance and conditions all suit - looks very hard to beat

Randwick Race 6 - 7 Sweet Idea

While I'd love to see Rebel Dane win for the Laurel Oak crew I think Sweet Idea will lead here and run it at a steady early pace making it hard for the horses looking for further, which most are.  She is classy enough to win this

Should be a fascinating race and a great first look at some of the big spring chances.

Really looking forward to the races today, best of luck if you're having a bet

August 2nd - Let's Go

Hey All

First meetings for me for the new season and I'm set to roll.  Hoping to get off to a positive start.

Best for today are

Moonee Valley Race 9 - 7 Jessy Belle

Is racing in great form, winner at the track and distance no issues with the slow track - looks beautifully placed

Rosehill Race 8 - 3 Moral Victory

Last start winner at the track and distance that only goes up .5Kg after the claim and should either lead or take the sit.

Best of luck if you're having a bet

I'm Back - pre-season trial

Hey All

It's been a while but with the new season almost here it's time to get up and running again.  Tweaks have been made and I'm confident I'll have a winning season this time around :)

Major tweaks are to bring a lay into the mix so that when I find a fav (under $5) that I want to take on I'll do so directly as well as backing those I think can beat it.  The thinking being I should be rewarded for finding a false fav even if I miss finding the winner.  Main driver though is to help maintain my bank

Second major tweak is to drop my double up bets - I wasn't targeting the double up races well and this tweak itself turns a small loss into a small profit on last seasons figures

The alternative here is to include all group races from interstate.  It's frustrating to see the best horses going around and not having an interest just because they aren't in Melbourne or Sydney or on a Saturday. This should top my race numbers back up towards 1000 which I think is a nice round number for the season.

Form is done for today, here are my best for Sydney and Melbourne as a thank you for dropping by

Sydney (Kensington) - Race 2 - 1 Testashadow

$2.80 fixed now but should get at least $3.  Has the best of the lead up form and with the 2kg claim for Lester Grace looks beautifully placed

Melbourne (Caulfield) - Race 8 - 1 Bagman

$3.20 fixed but should get $3.50 or better - has to lug the 60kg but will be suited by the 1800m and is a bit too classy for these.  Goes much better the Melbourne way of going

Great to be back, good luck if you're having a bet

May, June and July

Hey All

Well the holiday is over and I'm back at work - unfortunately

I looked into a few different ideas while I was off and there is some potential there, just need some more tweaking.

My main thought patterns are around finding ways to maintain my bank between winners.  I think the way to do that is to do that is to add a lay to the mix.  I've been pretty good at picking the favourites that are unders but haven't picked the horses that beat them as well as I should. So that's part of it

Next, I can't keep treating every race the same - some are easier, some harder.  The worry being that I was losing more on my double up races so picking which is which needs some work.

Either way, it's winter now - well almost.  So I'll have some time off the system to work things out and come back with a bang next season

Bring on August 1

All the best

Golden Slipper Day - RIP Nathan Berry

Hey All

Awful news during the week with the passing of Nathan Berry after a sudden illness. Amazing that a life can go from so seemingly perfect to over so quickly - my thoughts to all family and friends.

I've been a bit slack with the updates, since my last post I've had a 39 unit loss and an all square day - overall I'm -70 for the year.  Not ideal, there isn't much point having a losing system.  In saying that, I'm only down a couple of percent for the year and still in front since I started in Cup Week.

I do think it's time for a tweak though so I'm taking April off to work on some alternatives.  I have 3 weeks off work as well so that will give me some time to think of and try some new things.


Hoping to be back bigger and better in May

Good luck if you're punting

p.s. Slipper today, there won't be a dry eye if Tommy Berry can get Valentia home - has a great ew chance, lets hope he can

Saturday 22 March - Coolmore and Ravet Day

Hey All

This game is one that will put you back in your place very quickly and unfortunately that's what happened last night.  My first wipe out under the new system -50 units and now -31 units for the year.

Worst part is it shouldn't have been - if I stuck to my original work I would've found 2 winners but I didn't and paid the price.  I don't want to make excuses but the track was awful last night and leaders had no chance - most unusual for Moonee Valley.

Oh well, life goes on and I'll get a result if I keep trying - just look at Spirit of Boom - last night was his 15th go in a Group 1 race and he finally cracked it.  Congrats to all involved

Today's racing - classics at Rosehill in the Coolmore, Ranvet+ Slipper leadups  and a solid Sandown Lakeside meeting - my first there under this system

3 double up races today, here's 2 of them

Rosehill 3

2yo colts and geldings getting ready for the Golden Slipper. There are a few different formlines here and I'm happy to bank on the Blue Diamond being the best one.  This gives us Jabali and Cornrow

Sandown Lakeside 6

Interesting race with not too many chance - I think the best are Pago Rock, great record at the track 2 for 2 and Office Bearer who gets in on the 54 and has good form for this

Good luck to anyone having a bet

Friday 21 March - Group 1 Friday Night

Hey All

Off to the races tonight for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes - hoping to find a few winners in the process.

Still been very slack with updating my results database and I think I'm 5 meetings behind now - hopeless.  On a much brighter note, I had a good day on Saturday with a 32 unit win and am now 19 units in front for the year

Let's hope I keep moving in that direction

2 double up races tonight at Moonee Valley

Race 4

Just back Solicit, looks beautifully placed here stepping up to the 1600m.  I'm surprised she didn't go to a harder race in Sydney.

Race 7

Is an open race but I' pretty confident the winner will come from either - Spirit of Boom, It Is Written or my top pick in Thump.

Good luck to anyone having a bet

Saturday March 15 - Sydney's really heating up

Hey All

Been very slack with updating my results, it's never fun when you're not winning - it will come.

Last Saturday was ordinary with a 20 unit loss, dropping me to minus 38 units for the year.

Turned things around a bit last night though at Moonee Valley - Group 2 race on the night so thought I should have a go and glad I did.  Plus 25 units to bring me back to minus 13 units for the year to date.

Big day of racing today - hoping to wipe that 13 units out and get back in front

Only 2 double up races today as there are 18 races in total.  Here they are

Randwick - Race 1

Best of the day anywhere - Valentia stands out on times and should win this.

Bendigo - Race 6

Standalone meeting and some interesting racing but this race looks like only having the 2 chances - Hazard and Sino Eagle.  Happy to be doubling up here

Good luck to anyone having a bet

Saturday March 8 - Super Saturday

Hey All

Sorry for not getting the results for February up yet, long weekend should give me time to catch up.

Another losing week last week -18 units taking me to -38 units for the year to date.  It's all very frustrating especially when you see how many 2nds and 3rds I've been running.  Such is racing though, things will turn around real soon I'm sure.

Great days racing today with group races in both states - I'll double up on a couple that look like good things

Flemington - Race 4 Number 1 Bonaria

Beat most of these last start and that looks to be the form race for this - beautifully placed again

Rosehill - Race 5 Number 1 It's a Dundeel

Arguably the best horse in the country.  Trialled well for this and is set for a first up win against horses that aren't in the same class.

Good luck if you're having a punt

Saturday March 1 - autumn is here

Hey All

Back on track, well sort of, last week with a 4 unit win - that makes me -20 units for the year. I'll do an updated summary tomorrow now that another month has passed.

Now we're into March the autumn carnival will heat up in Sydney, couple of good weeks left in Melbourne on the way through as well - exciting racing

2 of today's double up races below

Flemington Race 2

Not stars here but clearly looks a race in two - Commanding Time or Saint or Sinner should win it.  Both look very well placed

Rosehill Race 2

Dream Choice is flying and will be hard to beat again but the up and coming Lonace will make a real race of it.  If Lonace doesn't have to work too hard up front it could be very hard to catch.  One of them wins

Good luck if you're having a bet

Saturday 22 February - Blue Diamond Day

Hey All

Racing can be so frustrating - you're traveling along ok and then it all comes crashing down.  Had my biggest losing day under the new system last week with - 47 units.  That puts me down 24 units for the calendar year - not good, not good at all.

Bigger picture though, I am still in front since I started back in November and I'm confident of getting back on track pretty quickly.  Having the best horses racing should help that happen

Only 3 double up races today with 17 races to be run, here are two of them

Caulfield Race 1

Finishing Card comes back from having a crack at the Group 1C.F. Orr Stakes - cops 60kg but gets a 2 kg claim. Final Jest gets a claim as well so gets in 1.5kg under the limit, last start winner that will get a good run on the pace.  Confident it's one of them in a thin race.

Randwick Race 4

With some smart horses first up and looking for a little further I think I've got this race sorted. Dances on Stars doesn't win all that often but is 3rd up now after 2 very good runs. On the other hand, Terravista has won 4 from 6 and looks very well placed here.  One of them should win

Great day of racing, good luck if you're having a punt

Saturday February 15 - Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day

Hey All

The racing is really heating up now with the good horses returning - gotta love this time of year

Had a small win last week of 3 units which makes me plus 23 units for the year - not where I want to be percentage wise but it's hard to complain when you're in front

Black Caviar has won the last 3 runnings of the Lightning Stakes so it makes sense it's been named after her, especially after she won it in track record time last year - was an amazing effort.

This year I think I've got it down to just the 2 chances so will double up on the race.  Samaready is multiple group 1 winner that will come from off the pace and Bernabeu is an up and comer that won super impressively this course and distance during the Spring Carnival.

Rosehill could be interesting with some rain about so it might be a mistake waiting until the last but it does look a race in two - Dream Choice and Mr Jackman

Good luck to anyone having a bet

Saturday February 8th, first group 1 of 2014

Hey All,

Early start today, on the tram typing this. Back on track last week with a 31 unit win, 10 up for the year now

Will be on most of the shorties in Melbourne today. Agadir my best in Sydney

Good luck if you're betting

February 1 - let's get back on track

Hey All

A new month, a couple of small tweaks and I'm confident I'll be back on track in no time

The biggest tweak is with the double up bets - rather than looking for horses to take one out I'll focus on doubling up on the races I'm most confident of beating.

Change for you guys as well - I'll post up a couple of my double up bets for the day rather than looking for straight out winners.  Hopefully it works out and we start seeing the names of a few winners on here

Caulfield Race 1

Let's get it early - Mamwaazel and So Hasty will be right up on the pace here and provided they don't take each other on they'll be very hard to run down.  At around $4 each, dutching them up will get me around evens.

Rosehill Race 7

The staying race of the day so have to go the in form Waller runner in Junoob - finished off well last start to just miss, the step up 2000m should help.  Jacquinot Bay cracked it for a win last start, steps up to 2000m for the first time and will be up on the pace - confident one of these two will be first past the post.

Good luck to anyone having a bet

January summary - not the best start but could be worse

Hey All

With no more Saturdays this month I figured now is as good a time as any to wrap up the month's figures - so here they are

Overall I finished up with a loss of 11 units on an outlay of 600 units so just under 2% of turnover

I found the winner of 38 out of 95 races or 40% - reasonable but needs to improve

Sadly I only managed 2 winning days out of 6, that definitely needs to improve.  Worst losing day was on the Saturday just gone where I gave back the 37 units I won on my best winning day which was the night before

Looks like I need a little tweaking and the obvious place to start are the double up races - I doubled up on one more race than I should have so out-layed 250 units for a loss of 45 units.  Just taking away the double up bets and my 11 unit loss becomes 11 unit profit - but I won't do that.  The answer is to be more selective of the races I'm choosing to double up on.

Next spot is to reconsider my approach to the shorties, in particular the 2yo first starters.  Backing the 2 in the last couple of weeks at $1.40 rather than betting around them would've turned the 10 units I lost on them into a 4 unit profit and put me in profit overall for the month. 

Finally, getting the best price needs to be thought about - how do I do it?  A simple example was on my badly managed Saturday a couple of weeks back where I ended up taking $13 on General Truce when it paid $17 on the tote - that's a 4 unit difference just by being more careful and focused

So to wrap it up, it was annoying to have a losing month to start the year but I'll be learning as I go and am confident I can turn things around in February

Wish me luck

Saturday 25 January - Australia Day Weekend

Hey All

Last week was a disaster -28 units, Return Journey was awful and nothing went quite right.  Worst of all this put me back to -11 units for the year so far.  Not good, not good at all BUT realistically I will have losing days so need to accept that.  Hoping not to have any losing months though

There was some good racing on last night with features at both Moonee Valley and Canterbury so I added those cards to the mix with a very nice result of + 37 units.  Apologies for not posting earlier but being a work day it was totally outside my usual routine. Back up to + 26 units for the year, or around 5 units per day. If you want to see what I was backing I posted on the Betfair Forum during the evening.

Back to normal today and hoping to finish the month off in style.

Best are

Caulfield - Race 7 - 10 Nesbo

A lot of non-winners in this race so lets go with an up and comer that's putting some wins back to back - going for 3 in a row here, still down in the weights and the 1800m looks ideal.  Little bit of an awkward barrier but Craig Williams will sort that out.

Randwick - 5 - 7 Myamira

There are plenty of good things at Randwick today, well on paper at least, but rather than go with one of the odds on / even money chances here's one that will be a little better price ($4+ at present).  There are a lot of ok horses in the race but not many genuine milers.  Looks beautifully placed imo

Good luck to anyone having a bet

Saturday January 18 - Go Return Journey

Hey All

Frustrating day last week - I was winning half way through the day, all square with a race to go but ended up finishing on -10 units.  Still 17 units up for the year though and hoping to improve on that today.

The tips I've posted here have gone pretty badly so far but hey, they'll come good :)

Flemington Race 4 - 10 Prince of Penzance

Won like a good horse last start and looks to have plenty of potential.  He's Your Man was excellent first up but I agree with Chris Waller that he is probably looking for further now.  So that's the main danger out of the way opening the door for victory.

Randwick Race 1 - 3 Jacinta

We'll get it early with this being my first and best bet of the day.  Looks to get a perfect run on a steady pace and should be too quick for them in the end

I've only got an interest in one horse at present - Return Journey - she's going around in the 3rd at Flemington today and would be very hard to beat at her best.  That's the question though, is she at her best?  We'll have to wait and see - fingers crossed

Good luck to anyone having a bet

11 January - Happy Birthday Camo

Hey All

Interesting day last week, got to meet a couple of guys from the Betfair forum in TINS and Very - good guys that know their punting. Betting wise, was up then down and then up a smidgen until I finally finished on -3 units and a small loss for the day.

Today's best

Flemington Race 5 - 5 Instrumentalist

Always hard to go past a Waller stayer - the paper says he rises 2kg but on my reading he goes from 60kg to 57kg so that would be drops 3kg. Last start winner track and distance, he'll do me.

Warwick Farm Race 8 - 1 Didntcostalot

Should get the perfect suck run behind a hot pace - 2 for 2 at the track.  Has to lug the 60.5 but looks very well placed

Good luck to anyone having a bet

January 4 on my way to the track

Hey all

Hope this works, first time posting from my phone.

Great start to the year with 30 units profit on new years day, let's hope I can keep it going

Todays best

Caulfield race 6 - 13 Prince Stratum

Well backed last start but had no chance after turning into a massive gale, did great to hang on for 4th

Rosehill race 5 - 2 Windswept

Was nominated for the Standish so must be flying. Should be too good for these

Good luck if you're betting

January 1 - Happy New Year

Hey All

Here's my 2 best to start the year

Flemington - Race 7 - 5 Electric Fusion

Flying at the moment and can run too quick for these over the 2000m today.  Index Linked will have support which should mean we can get evens about this one which I think's a great price

Randwick - Race 4 - 6 Atmospherical

I'm still a times man at heart and this one won on debut at Kembla breaking 57 seconds for the 1000m even after copping a bump at the start.  Comes into town for a no metro win race - can and I think will step and potentially go onto bigger and better things

Good luck to anyone having a bet :)