September 28 - Sir Rupert Clarke

Hey All

A day of highs and lows yesterday - the low, Sydney in the Grand Final - they didn't show up unfortunately - that's footy.  The high, another winning day at the races and things finally look like they are turning around

Yesterday's profit was a very nice 67 units meaning I'm now only 15 units down for the season.  Hoping I make it 3 for 3 for the weekend today and get into profit overall.  Tough day to do it though with lots of chances in many of the races.  Focus is on Caulfield, they can go around at Warwick Farm without me

My best bet won again yesterday and is doing well

Caulfield Race 1 - 1 Reckless Assassin

Dropped back from 2000m to 1600m last start where she was in a race turned upside down by a mid race move by an outsider going clear of the field.  Should get a good run on the pace today, steps back up to a more suitable 1800m and the 2 kg claim clinches the deal.  Happy to be on

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 27 - Grand Final Day - GO SWANNIES

Hey All

Beautiful sunny day here in Melbourne, perfect for the AFL Grand Final - really confident my Swannies will win today :)

Punting wise, back into winning form last night at Moonee Valley with a 57 unit profit putting me back at -82 units for the season.  My best win for the season so far and hopefully a sign of things to come.

My best bet, Almalad, won as well once again showing the Sydney 3 year olds will possibly dominate the Melbourne Spring. Scary thing for the Melbourne horses is he isn't even the best one from up there.

Just betting on Rosehill today - will whack my bets on early and head off to the pub to watch the footy

My best is in the first

Rosehill Race 1 - 2 Sweynesse

Coming off a win in the Spring Stakes in Newcastle, a race that often throws up some good form. 3 wins from 3 starts should become 4 from 4 after today

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 26 - Moir Stakes, Grand Final eve

Hey All

Struggling a bit with another big losing day last Saturday, will soldier on though and hopefully see things turn around very soon.  -54 unit and -139 units overall for the season now.  It was a tough old day at the races for many though, I definitely wasn't alone

Things are a little different this week with Group 1 races tonight at Moonee Valley and Caulfield on Sunday and then Group racing at Rosehill tomorrow along with the AFL Grand Final and the mighty Swannies going for another flag :)

Plan is to go just the 3 feature meetings, so one each of the next 3 days. 

My best tonight is

Moonee Valley Race 7 - 1 Almalad

Won a Group 1 over 1600m in June after stepping up from 1200m, goes the more traditional 1400m - 1600m tonight coming off a 1.6 len defeat in the Golden Rose.  I think the Sydney 3yos will be stronger again this year so this will be the first test against Melbourne's best.

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 20 - Gerorge Main / Underwood Stakes Day

Hey All

Great day of racing with Group 1 races in both states and excellent cards to back them up.  Sure they are small fields at Randwick but there are very good horses running that will play major roles during the spring.

Quick clean up of Newcastle - found the Tibbie winner in Fine Bubbles but unfortunately didn't get the $25 mentioned.  Went Betfair SP again and ended up a bit over $15. Nothing in the Cup so I'll cop a 2 unit loss which is -6 over the 2 days.  Still a day behind with my results but on figures for now that will put me on -85 for the season, adjusted up until 6 September.

Today's best

Caulfield - race 6 number 1 Spillway

Naturalism Stakes and I'm on the top one - 3rd up, steps up to the 2000m and coming off a great 4th behind Dissident in a Group 1 last start.

Randwick - race 6 number 10 Panzer Division

Going the 3yo against the older horses in the George Main - will run them along and be very hard to beat with the 50.5kg. 

Good luck if you're having a bet

September 18 - Newcastle Cup Day

Hey All

1 out of 2 correct yesterday for a 4 unit loss - bad shopping there taking Betfair SP which paid unders.  Would've lost a little anyway as I got the Newmarket very wrong - haven't seen the race yet but apparently they walked.

Two group races again today, here's my plays

Race 6 - Tibbie Stakes

I've got it down to 2 that I should be able to back each way.  Bouzy Rouge is flying at present winning a listed race at Wyong last start, can step up in grade today.  My other should pay $25 or so, Fine Bubbles - coming off Brisbane form, outsider with a decent chance

Race 7 - Newcastle Cup

3 chances imo - Travolta will appreciate being back on top of the ground, Multilateral is a good consistent stayer and Oriental Lady will give them something to catch

Good luck if you're having a bet

17 September - Newcastle Newmarket Day

Hey All

Couple of group races in Newcastle so having a bet today

Race 6 - Spring Stakes

Sweynesse was impressive winning last start and can win again here. Monteux looks the biggest danger so will back the both of them.  Willing to risk the second favourite High Above

Race 7 - Newcastle Newmarket

Always a good race and the form that can stand up during the spring. Top pick is the bottom one - Spy Decoder which has form behind the most impressive Chautauqua.  Slow Pace can run a race at double figure odds first up. The one that I'll just leave out, unless i can get prices to back all 3, is Mr Chard

Back again tomorrow, good luck if you're betting

August Summary and tidy up

Hey All

Back on track with a win of 14 units yesterday - still working things out but it was nice to have another winning day, hopefully it's a sign of things to come.

One of my two best bets, Rich Enuf, won as well so I'm sure my best bets would be in front - I'll have to work that out one day.

Main reason for the post today is that I've finally got my results database up to date, as at the end of August.  It's annoying to do but needs to be done, I'll catch up the last 2 weeks this week.  I did find a couple of mistakes in the process so the figures have changed a little on what I've been posting.

The first was a 5 unit refund on a bet that didn't come through until the Monday and I missed when working things out.  The other was an additional 2 unit bet on a horse by mistake - I've taken it out to make the numbers balance. More care needed going forward.

Here are the figures

5 Saturdays

2/8/14        4.5 units
9/8/14        5 units
16/8/14     -65 units
23/8/14     -4.5 units
30/8/14     -13 units

Overall -73 units (LOT -8.59%)

Total races 85
Winning races 39
Strike Rates 45.88%

Lays - loss of 15.5 units

So not the nicest figures.  The loss of 65 units of the 16th was the killer but days like that are part of punting, unfortunately. The strike rate is too low as I back multiple horses in most races, needs to lift.

As you know, I've already dumped the lays - not only did I lose on them but they also meant I had less on my winners in those races, when I found them.  This change will be known of as the Tiger Tees Tweak :)

There are 4 group races in Newcastle this week - 2 on Wednesday, 2 on Thursday so I'll be back then

All the best

13 September - not quite right

Hey All

Another losing week last week but I'm not too worried because it was mostly because I messed up my staking.  Obviously need to find some more winners as well but I think I'm on the right track.

Week -20 units
Season -100 units

Wiped out with my best bets last week as well so looking at bouncing back

Best for this week are

Flemington - Race 6 - 5 Rich Enuf

Was super impressive at Moonee Valley last start running good time and winning very well. Has to handle the straight but I'll gamble on that

Rosehill - Race 1 - 6 Sensualism

Will be suited by the drier track and looks beautifully place to back up the win here 2 starts ago. 

Good luck if you're having a bet

6 September - wrong way, go back

Hey All

Another losing week to finish the month has sent me back to the drawing board and the realisation that I've gone the wrong way.

Numbers first - dropped another 20 units to finish on -80 units for the month

In looking back through my results two things stood out - the first was that I'd lost on my lays, only 4.5 units but it was a loss.  It was also apparent that laying a horse in a race meant I was having less on the winner if I found it.  Secondly, I looked at my place results and was surprised to see so many 2nds and 3rds many of which were $5 or the better for the win.

So, based on that, it's time for another tweak to start September and the spring proper - I'll now be betting each way if my selection is paying $5 or more and dropping my lays.  Let's see how that goes.

My best at Caulfield last week lost on protest, the one in Sydney was ordinary.

My best today are

The Valley Race 2 - 1 Text'n'Hurley

Loves the mile at The Valley and looks very well in with the 3kg claim

Randwick Race 7 - 1 Tiger Tees

Looks the leader, loves the wet and beautifully placed to make it 3 in a row

Good luck if you're having a bet