Hey All
Tips here were pretty ordinary although Druid was first past the post - just needed the jockey to stay on!!!
I'll be back racing again tomorrow - New Years Day
I thought the best thing to do was to wrap up my existing trial now so that I can run a new one for all of 2014. Can I make this thing pay for a whole 12 months??? We'll know in a years time.
Results of the new system so far are very promising - I won't go into too many stats because they are thrown out by Stakes and Derby Days but suffice to say I'm happy with how things are going.
Looks like I can't cut and paste from my database (I'll work that out) but here are the results of the 9 race days up to now
7/11/13 +107
9/11/13 +116
16/11/13 -27
23/11/13 +13
7/12/13 -6
14/12/13 +17
21/12/13 +24.5
26/12/13 +8
28/12/13 +27
Profits are in units
I commenced the 100 units per day strategy on 16/11/13 and since then I'm in front by 56.5 units on turnover of 700 units so around 8% POT.
In December that went up to 70.5 units on turnover of 500 units so around 14% POT.
I would love to stay over 10% so let's see how I go in 2014
Happy New Year to those that drop in - All the best to you and yours and may 2014 be your best year ever :)
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Saturday 28 December
Hey All
What a frustrating old day Boxing Day turned out to be. After getting off to a flyer and being up 35 units early on I fell away and ended up with an 8 unit win. Randwick was the killer only being able to find the first 2 winners. Frustrating but a win is a win
Didn't do any good with the two I posted here although pairing up Floatmyboat with Little Bro found the winner at Caulfield.
Here's today's tips
Canterbury Race 7 - Number 6 Druid
Was tempted to go with what everyone will tip as their best in Messene in the last but rather than do that let's look for a bit of value.
I did the form for this race and this one stood out with only concern being around where the pace will come from. Then I looked at the price in the paper and saw it's at $21 and thought wow, what have I done wrong??? I looked again and again and I can't see why it's that price and think it's clearly the horse to beat. Goes well track and distance, loves a good track and coming off a good run last start.
Moonee Valley Race 7 - Number 16 Prince Stratum
Glad this one got a run because it's absolutely flying. Down in the weights, should get a perfect run and clearly the one to beat.
Good luck to anyone having a bet
What a frustrating old day Boxing Day turned out to be. After getting off to a flyer and being up 35 units early on I fell away and ended up with an 8 unit win. Randwick was the killer only being able to find the first 2 winners. Frustrating but a win is a win
Didn't do any good with the two I posted here although pairing up Floatmyboat with Little Bro found the winner at Caulfield.
Here's today's tips
Canterbury Race 7 - Number 6 Druid
Was tempted to go with what everyone will tip as their best in Messene in the last but rather than do that let's look for a bit of value.
I did the form for this race and this one stood out with only concern being around where the pace will come from. Then I looked at the price in the paper and saw it's at $21 and thought wow, what have I done wrong??? I looked again and again and I can't see why it's that price and think it's clearly the horse to beat. Goes well track and distance, loves a good track and coming off a good run last start.
Moonee Valley Race 7 - Number 16 Prince Stratum
Glad this one got a run because it's absolutely flying. Down in the weights, should get a perfect run and clearly the one to beat.
Good luck to anyone having a bet
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Boxing Day Best
Hey All
Hope you had a great Christmas, it's done and dusted for another year
Winning day last Saturday, hoping to keep that going today
My best, on a tricky day, are
Caulfield - Race 5 - Number 7 Little Bro
Very tricky day at Caulfield so went hunting a bit for one to pick out. Little Bro has an awkward barrier but should get across pretty easily provided they don't do anything stupid like trying to go back. Ultra consistent and 3rd up from a spell now - a great ew bet if I was betting ew at around the $8 - I'll back him with the 9 and the 10 and be very confident of getting a result.
Randwick - Race 4 - Number 4 Amovatio
Always a bit of a worry when horses develop a record as non-winners and this one is headed that way with only 1 win from the 9 starts BUT he also has 6 placings to go with that 1 win. So a very consistent type. This race does look very winnable and he looks to get a great run up on what should be a moderate pace. Drops back to the 1400m and down 4kgs in weight. If he runs anything at all like his run here 3 starts back he will win this easily.
Good luck if you're having a punt
Hope you had a great Christmas, it's done and dusted for another year
Winning day last Saturday, hoping to keep that going today
My best, on a tricky day, are
Caulfield - Race 5 - Number 7 Little Bro
Very tricky day at Caulfield so went hunting a bit for one to pick out. Little Bro has an awkward barrier but should get across pretty easily provided they don't do anything stupid like trying to go back. Ultra consistent and 3rd up from a spell now - a great ew bet if I was betting ew at around the $8 - I'll back him with the 9 and the 10 and be very confident of getting a result.
Randwick - Race 4 - Number 4 Amovatio
Always a bit of a worry when horses develop a record as non-winners and this one is headed that way with only 1 win from the 9 starts BUT he also has 6 placings to go with that 1 win. So a very consistent type. This race does look very winnable and he looks to get a great run up on what should be a moderate pace. Drops back to the 1400m and down 4kgs in weight. If he runs anything at all like his run here 3 starts back he will win this easily.
Good luck if you're having a punt
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Saturday 21 December
Hey All
Just finished off the form and hoping for another winning Saturday
Thought I'd throw out my best for Flemington and Rosehill for those having a look
Flemington Race 7 Number 3 - Index Linked
Sounds like there's plenty of money for it and that's no surprise. Waller's stayers are going great and the Sydney form coming to Melbourne has really been standing up. Steps up to the 2000m after running in quick 1800m races and looks too fast for these.
Rosehill Race 4 Number 10 - You'll Never
There is an old rule about dual acceptors that makes a lot of sense - the trainer gets a choice of two races and will normally go for the one they think they can win. Racing consistently and gets in on the limit weight. Biggest danger is Calvo and I'm happy to take on Imperil who looks to go better with the edge off the track.
Best of luck to anyone having a bet :)
Just finished off the form and hoping for another winning Saturday
Thought I'd throw out my best for Flemington and Rosehill for those having a look
Flemington Race 7 Number 3 - Index Linked
Sounds like there's plenty of money for it and that's no surprise. Waller's stayers are going great and the Sydney form coming to Melbourne has really been standing up. Steps up to the 2000m after running in quick 1800m races and looks too fast for these.
Rosehill Race 4 Number 10 - You'll Never
There is an old rule about dual acceptors that makes a lot of sense - the trainer gets a choice of two races and will normally go for the one they think they can win. Racing consistently and gets in on the limit weight. Biggest danger is Calvo and I'm happy to take on Imperil who looks to go better with the edge off the track.
Best of luck to anyone having a bet :)
Sunday, December 15, 2013
Have I cracked the secret???
Hey All
Sorry it's been so long since I last posted - most of that time was spent just battling away the same as I have been for years. Lately however, well since Oaks Day to be precise, things have been coming together a little better - well in part at least.
Have I cracked the secret??? It's way too soon to say but I'm feeling good about how things are traveling so far with my latest approach. Question of course is will the numbers stand up with a proper period of testing and application - so that's what 2014 will be all about, consolidation and real life testing to see how I go.
So, what's the new approach???
It's pretty basic really and combines much of what I've learned over the years about the punt and about myself.
Simple rules - Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays + feature race days only. Betting 100 units per day or 5 units per race + 4 double up races each day (based on 16 races - double up races drop for each additional race on the card).
In each race I identify the main winning chances and back either my top pick alone, if it stands out, or alternative dutch up 2 or 3 runners to try and make a profit. My required profit per race is at least 50% so I won't back anything at under $1.50 or so but when I back multiple runners I am aiming for closer to a minimum $2 overall.
Results so far a pretty encouraging but blown out by two 100+ unit profit days on Oaks and Stakes Day to start things off. Two losing days and two winning days since and I'm averaging around 37% profit overall. I expect this to even out, the questions will be where and when - I'm hoping to stay in double figures but anything above 5% will make it all worthwhile.
Anyways, that's the basics - more to follow. Come the new year I'll start posting more again including putting a couple of my best up each week for those interested in following them.
Thanks for dropping in - hoping this is the one :)
Sorry it's been so long since I last posted - most of that time was spent just battling away the same as I have been for years. Lately however, well since Oaks Day to be precise, things have been coming together a little better - well in part at least.
Have I cracked the secret??? It's way too soon to say but I'm feeling good about how things are traveling so far with my latest approach. Question of course is will the numbers stand up with a proper period of testing and application - so that's what 2014 will be all about, consolidation and real life testing to see how I go.
So, what's the new approach???
It's pretty basic really and combines much of what I've learned over the years about the punt and about myself.
Simple rules - Sydney and Melbourne on Saturdays + feature race days only. Betting 100 units per day or 5 units per race + 4 double up races each day (based on 16 races - double up races drop for each additional race on the card).
In each race I identify the main winning chances and back either my top pick alone, if it stands out, or alternative dutch up 2 or 3 runners to try and make a profit. My required profit per race is at least 50% so I won't back anything at under $1.50 or so but when I back multiple runners I am aiming for closer to a minimum $2 overall.
Results so far a pretty encouraging but blown out by two 100+ unit profit days on Oaks and Stakes Day to start things off. Two losing days and two winning days since and I'm averaging around 37% profit overall. I expect this to even out, the questions will be where and when - I'm hoping to stay in double figures but anything above 5% will make it all worthwhile.
Anyways, that's the basics - more to follow. Come the new year I'll start posting more again including putting a couple of my best up each week for those interested in following them.
Thanks for dropping in - hoping this is the one :)
Friday, May 17, 2013
Everything's on hold
Hey All
Sorry for not being about for so long - things are slowly progressing in the background, yet another system is in the testing phase. More on that in a while
For now, my focus is changing - it's just over 100 days until the federal election and I can't sit back and watch Abbott take the top job. He needs to be stopped.
Not sure how much I can do but I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do anything so that's where I'll be focusing for the next few months.
Feel free to join in, the more the merrier
Cheers
Sorry for not being about for so long - things are slowly progressing in the background, yet another system is in the testing phase. More on that in a while
For now, my focus is changing - it's just over 100 days until the federal election and I can't sit back and watch Abbott take the top job. He needs to be stopped.
Not sure how much I can do but I couldn't live with myself if I didn't do anything so that's where I'll be focusing for the next few months.
Feel free to join in, the more the merrier
Cheers
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