Hey All,
Happy New Year :)
Very BIG year coming up - I will be working to a few different systems this year, testing them out and seeing if they are the ones that get me to where I want to be, I am pretty confident they will be.
So here they are
System 1 - Monday and Thursday Greyhounds on Betfair - simple plan, I will be risking 4 units per bet, laying, playing or dutching dogs to make money. The change that will see this succeed is that I'll be buying Sure Pick Ratings each of the 2 nights - not for the ratings as such, although they will play a part, but more so for the form guide. I've said to a few different people in the past that if I had the form I used in the TAB back during my uni days for the greyhounds for use on Betfair I could make money, this is effectively that form. It tells me the running style of the dogs, the speed out of boxes and their records. Hopefully that's all I need to know to make some money - kicks off Thursday the 6th when the holidays are over and everything is back to normal, oh and I get paid :)
System 2 - Saturday Gallops, Sydney and Melbourne - with thanks to STS on the Betfair forum I will be trialling a flat stake betting approach betting 1 unit on each race at each venue (only Sydney and Melbourne metro or standalone substitute meetings) each week. The BIG thing here will be I'll be focusing on 16 (normally) races per week rather than the 100's I have been in the past. I'm still working out if I will bet straight win bets or win and place but will decide before day one which will be this coming Saturday the 8th. I'm not expecting huge profits from this system but I am looking to make a consistent return of 5 to 10% of turnover - if I can do that over the rest of the season, until July 31, I will know I'm onto something.
System 3 - Saturday Gallops - Betfair Lays - once again, 16 races (normally) - 1 Lay per race. I will basically be laying the first horse in the market I don't think can win. Because I will be on course most weeks, I will be laying to a set stake of 1 unit rather than a set liability - it's easier that way.
System 4 - Saturday exotics - 1 unit on each of the Sydney and Melbourne Quaddies and BIG 6's - I will be playing for tiny percentages on these bets early on but hoping to grow my bank and increase the size of the bets as I go - expecting a very low strike rate but hoping to jag some nice results over the course of the year.
And that's pretty well it - the 4 Systems above will be my focus for they year and the ones I want to succeed with. I will have other bets but only on my own horses and at social outings + maybe a bit of poker and an occasional trip to the casino as well - see how all that goes - much less than I have been at any rate.
Major change for me is that I will only be betting on these systems 3 days per week, the balance of the time will be spent making the most out of life. I move to a new place next week and that change will help make these others easier - why would I want to be online having a bet when I could be down at the pub having a drink or two and meeting new people or watching a band etc, living life though - it's time to claim some time back as well as to make a proper, focused, go of the punt.
Exciting year coming up, I hope you all join me for the ride - I'll just post results for Systems 1 and 4 but will look at Twittering my picks for Systems 2 and 3 so if you're interested you can track my progress and maybe even follow me now and then when I get on a roll :)
Anyways, thanks for reading - I hope you're ready for a VERY big 2011 :)
Cheers
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