Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Well that was weird

Hey All,

Figured it was about time I touched base again, I can't believe it's been so long since I last posted.

The election result wasn't ideal on first appearance with Australia ending up with a hung parliament BUT in hindsight, I'm pretty happy. The big things for me being the Greens getting more power along with the country independents - we've been getting sucked to the right for too long so the Greens should help with that and the rural / regional areas will finally get a look in thanks to the independents - interesting times ahead.

Anyways, enough of that - and back to the punt. It's been..... well weird really. I lost all my structure and threw away all my rules and ended up having one of the most mixed up few months ever. I've had nice wins at the races and the casino and big losses on Betfair where I just can't get on a roll. In the end I've had an enjoyable time but learned that money management is just as important when you're winning as when your losing - I'm back to square in terms of my accounts being empty again but did buy a few things I needed, pay a few bills and have a few BIG nights along the way so it wasn't a total wipe out.

Highlights were Etoile Vitesse winning a race at Moruya and paying around $8 - I bet up a bit on the race as I was pretty confident and cleaned up, well relatively pulling in around $1k in total. She has had a great preparation with 3 wins, a 2nd and a 3rd from her 7 starts and although she ran 6th last start it was a big step up in class being her first start in town. Looks like at lest one more run so fingers crossed for a result.

The other big racing result was on Cox Plate Day where I took a 5 legged parlay for an outlay of $26, hit all 5 legs and got back just over $1000 - definitely something worth looking at again in the future especially as none of the legs paid over $10, 2 were long odds on and 1 was around evens. Also bet up a bit after the collect and hit a nice trifecta in the last race for a small percentage to have one of my best ever days on course.

Outside of that, I had some fun on the craps tables at the casino thanks to some advice from a regular player and a new system I now use - I'll look forward to giving it another run when I'm cashed up again.

Now to the future, I've still been betting on too many races so that has to stop and I think I've found the way to do it. There is a guy on the Betfair forum called Sea The Stars that works on a system of betting flat stakes on each race in Melbourne on Saturdays and Wednesdays - he seems to do pretty well out of it and the reason it appeals is that I've often thought that if I'd just bet on a certain meeting I would've walked out in front. Time to find out if that's true or not.

So it's time to start a another trial - well almost time, I'm currently on holidays and will be going away later in the week so will hold off until I get back on the 20th or - so potentially starting up on Saturday the 21st.

I will do it a little differently though - initial thinking is

* Saturdays only
* Sydney and Melbourne only
* Flat stakes - $10 per race
* Each way betting at better than $2 the place (this one could change but is basically about maintaining cash flow for now)
* A/F/F trifectas on odds on favs along with A/2nd, 3rd, 4th favs - shopping for better returns than just taking the short odds
* A four legged parlay at each venue each day for $1 - cost $11 per meeting
* Quaddies and Big 6's at each venue as well

* Lays - 1 selection per race risking up to $50 - maximum loss for the day of $100

Plan is to risk a total of $300 (including the $100 on the lays) each week - working on 8 races per meeting, I'll add an extra $10 per race for any additional races.

So we'll see how that goes for the rest of the year and work out if it has potential or not. The biggest advantage is that it caps the number of races I play each week but maintains enough races to keep me interested all day on a Saturday.

I will possibly play Monday and Thursday night greyhounds as well but will decide that when I get back - the rest of the week will be either poker or punt free unless I go to the races on a Friday night etc

I hope all this makes sense - the other advantage of this system is that I'll be able to start posting my tips on Saturdays again, well at least my early thoughts - I might even use Twitter to update them during the day as well so people can follow me as I go, if they are interested of course

I've tried a hell of a lot of different approaches, here's another - let's hope it's the one.

Better get out and about and enjoy this beautiful weather

All the best

p.s. Soul Diva is in foal to Denman - as I leased to race her that's the end of another Chapter with plenty of great memories, she will be missed

2 comments:

davo77 said...

welcome back and good luck this time around mate :)

Womble said...

Thanks Davo, have delayed it a bit but I think it's the way to go

Hope you're playing Pokerstars this week???

Cheers