Hey All
Sorry for the rushed message yesterday - bit of a false start on the change, with some more work to be done. Either way, I will revisit everything after the carnival and my 3 weeks off in November.
Best bet last night was shocking - they have been ever since I posted the figures, just a coincidence?
Great day of racing today, hoping to find a winner
My best are
Melbourne - Race 5 Number 1 Precedence
Old faithful - loves the track and distance and seems to be going as well as ever. Not a lot of depth in this and the main dangers have to get around the track.
Sydney - Race 8 Number 10 Boss Lane
Awkwardly drawn but hoping he rolls forward with the light weight, wins if he finds a spot against a average bunch.
I like the favourite in the Cox Plate - Fawkner has had the perfect lead up and should get the run of the race just off the hot pace.
Good luck to anyone having a bet
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Friday, October 24, 2014
October 24 - Manikato Stakes - ALL CHANGE!!!
Hey All
Group 1 racing tonight at Moonee Valley with the Manikato - I like Terravista, great race though with lots of chances
I've decided to put the system on hold for now after being inspired to go back to something else I've been working on. More on that over the weekend.
My best tonight at Moonee Valley is Lady Cumquat in Race 2, jumps in 5 minutes - no best bet for Canterbury
Gotta go, good luck if you're betting
Group 1 racing tonight at Moonee Valley with the Manikato - I like Terravista, great race though with lots of chances
I've decided to put the system on hold for now after being inspired to go back to something else I've been working on. More on that over the weekend.
My best tonight at Moonee Valley is Lady Cumquat in Race 2, jumps in 5 minutes - no best bet for Canterbury
Gotta go, good luck if you're betting
Saturday, October 18, 2014
October 18 - Caulfield Cup Day
Hey All
The carnival is really heating up now with today being Caulfield Cup Day. It's a crucial day in the scheme of things as all the main contenders for the Group 1 races in Melbourne Cup Week will be going around. A great day of racing in it's own right though.
Dropped the 10 units on Wednesday, with my picks not even running a place so that means I'm down 135 units for the season now.
My best today
Caulfield - Race 7 Number 7 Vilanova
Interesting race with the main chance in Brambles scratched so it can run in the Caulfield Cup itself. Opens the door a bit and I'm happy to be on this Group 2 winning 4yo gelding who hasn't got a great winning record overall but is ultra consistent.
Randwick Race 7 Number 3 - Fine Bubbles
Racing in great form after winning the Tibbie at Newcastle before running a good 5th last start behind some very smart ones in the Golden Pendant. Looks beautifully in with the 3kg claim here.
The Group 3 Northerly stakes is on at Ascot today as well so it will be on my list of races to play.
Thanks to Beteasy for the free $50 bet, it was too hard to resist so I've snapped it up and plonked it on Admire Ratki at $11 in the Caulfield Cup. Wasn't an easy decision but I wanted something $10 plus to make it worth while and the others I liked had negatives with bad barriers and an overseas jockey.
Best of luck if you're having a bet
The carnival is really heating up now with today being Caulfield Cup Day. It's a crucial day in the scheme of things as all the main contenders for the Group 1 races in Melbourne Cup Week will be going around. A great day of racing in it's own right though.
Dropped the 10 units on Wednesday, with my picks not even running a place so that means I'm down 135 units for the season now.
My best today
Caulfield - Race 7 Number 7 Vilanova
Interesting race with the main chance in Brambles scratched so it can run in the Caulfield Cup itself. Opens the door a bit and I'm happy to be on this Group 2 winning 4yo gelding who hasn't got a great winning record overall but is ultra consistent.
Randwick Race 7 Number 3 - Fine Bubbles
Racing in great form after winning the Tibbie at Newcastle before running a good 5th last start behind some very smart ones in the Golden Pendant. Looks beautifully in with the 3kg claim here.
The Group 3 Northerly stakes is on at Ascot today as well so it will be on my list of races to play.
Thanks to Beteasy for the free $50 bet, it was too hard to resist so I've snapped it up and plonked it on Admire Ratki at $11 in the Caulfield Cup. Wasn't an easy decision but I wanted something $10 plus to make it worth while and the others I liked had negatives with bad barriers and an overseas jockey.
Best of luck if you're having a bet
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
October 15 - Ladies Day Vase
Hey All
Today was a Group 1 day in the past but with the Thousand Guineas moving to Guineas Day we're just left with a Group 3 race to highlight the card.
Open race - 1600m mares. I've got it down to just the 3 chances all at double figure odds - Viadana, Keep De Rose and Spirit of Heaven
Lost again on the weekend but only 6 units, down 125 for the season now. Both best bets went down as well so not a good result.
Hoping to bounce back today, best of luck if you're having a bet
Today was a Group 1 day in the past but with the Thousand Guineas moving to Guineas Day we're just left with a Group 3 race to highlight the card.
Open race - 1600m mares. I've got it down to just the 3 chances all at double figure odds - Viadana, Keep De Rose and Spirit of Heaven
Lost again on the weekend but only 6 units, down 125 for the season now. Both best bets went down as well so not a good result.
Hoping to bounce back today, best of luck if you're having a bet
Saturday, October 11, 2014
October 11 - Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas and Spring Champion Day
Hey All
Great day of racing in Melbourne today with the best of the 3yos stepping out in Thousand Guineas for the fillies and Caulfield Guineas for the colts and geldings. Add to that the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney with the super impressive First Seal taking on the boys and it's a classic day for the 3 year olds.
The main system continues to frustrate with another losing day last week and a 42 unit loss meaning I'm down 119 for the season. Needs a bit of turning around so I went looking for a positive and it wasn't very hard to find - my best bets. I had a feeling they were going pretty well and doing the figures has confirmed that
Melbourne
3 from 11 or 27.27% for a POT of 7.73%
Sydney
5 from 10 or 50% for a POT of 82.60%
Overall
8 from 21 or 38.10% for a POT of 43.38%
Small numbers but very promising and something I will start to focus on a bit more from here. All the tips have been posted here with results calculated using Betfair best of 4 or best of 5 depending which was available.
Todays best are
Caulfield - Race 8 number 6 Lumosty
The main lead up race doesn't look to be anything special so I'm looking outside that to a horse coming off a 9 length win in a Sale maiden. Should jump and run and be very hard to catch
Randwick - Race 2 number 2 Best Case
With the other form race being a 1900 benchmark 85 here a fortnight ago I'm happy to be on a horse stepping up in distance and down in class from the 1500m Group 2 Shannon Quality. Looking for the 2000m now and should get a great run off a fairly hot pace.
Best of luck if you're having a bet
Great day of racing in Melbourne today with the best of the 3yos stepping out in Thousand Guineas for the fillies and Caulfield Guineas for the colts and geldings. Add to that the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney with the super impressive First Seal taking on the boys and it's a classic day for the 3 year olds.
The main system continues to frustrate with another losing day last week and a 42 unit loss meaning I'm down 119 for the season. Needs a bit of turning around so I went looking for a positive and it wasn't very hard to find - my best bets. I had a feeling they were going pretty well and doing the figures has confirmed that
Melbourne
3 from 11 or 27.27% for a POT of 7.73%
Sydney
5 from 10 or 50% for a POT of 82.60%
Overall
8 from 21 or 38.10% for a POT of 43.38%
Small numbers but very promising and something I will start to focus on a bit more from here. All the tips have been posted here with results calculated using Betfair best of 4 or best of 5 depending which was available.
Todays best are
Caulfield - Race 8 number 6 Lumosty
The main lead up race doesn't look to be anything special so I'm looking outside that to a horse coming off a 9 length win in a Sale maiden. Should jump and run and be very hard to catch
Randwick - Race 2 number 2 Best Case
With the other form race being a 1900 benchmark 85 here a fortnight ago I'm happy to be on a horse stepping up in distance and down in class from the 1500m Group 2 Shannon Quality. Looking for the 2000m now and should get a great run off a fairly hot pace.
Best of luck if you're having a bet
Saturday, October 4, 2014
4 October - Epsom and Turnbull Day
Hey All
Lovely day in both Melbourne and Sydney - spring has really sprung, time to find some winners.
I am a bit behind with my results database but on interim figures I had a loss of 52 units last Saturday to give me a loss overall for the season of 77 units - that would be a 4 unit loss for August if the figures all hold up when I do the reconciliation.
So another losing month but a much better result and on the way to winning one in October.
My best bet went shocking on Sunday so hopefully they bounce back today.
Flemington - Race 8 - Number 2 Bonaria
Ran a great 4th last start against better mares. Goes well track, distance and conditions and looks the one here
Randwick - Race 4 - Number 3 Brazen Beau
Interesting race but with the favourite coming back from the 1400m I'm happy to go with the horse coming out of a very quick Flemington straight 6
Good luck if you're having a bet
Lovely day in both Melbourne and Sydney - spring has really sprung, time to find some winners.
I am a bit behind with my results database but on interim figures I had a loss of 52 units last Saturday to give me a loss overall for the season of 77 units - that would be a 4 unit loss for August if the figures all hold up when I do the reconciliation.
So another losing month but a much better result and on the way to winning one in October.
My best bet went shocking on Sunday so hopefully they bounce back today.
Flemington - Race 8 - Number 2 Bonaria
Ran a great 4th last start against better mares. Goes well track, distance and conditions and looks the one here
Randwick - Race 4 - Number 3 Brazen Beau
Interesting race but with the favourite coming back from the 1400m I'm happy to go with the horse coming out of a very quick Flemington straight 6
Good luck if you're having a bet
Sunday, September 28, 2014
September 28 - Sir Rupert Clarke
Hey All
A day of highs and lows yesterday - the low, Sydney in the Grand Final - they didn't show up unfortunately - that's footy. The high, another winning day at the races and things finally look like they are turning around
Yesterday's profit was a very nice 67 units meaning I'm now only 15 units down for the season. Hoping I make it 3 for 3 for the weekend today and get into profit overall. Tough day to do it though with lots of chances in many of the races. Focus is on Caulfield, they can go around at Warwick Farm without me
My best bet won again yesterday and is doing well
Caulfield Race 1 - 1 Reckless Assassin
Dropped back from 2000m to 1600m last start where she was in a race turned upside down by a mid race move by an outsider going clear of the field. Should get a good run on the pace today, steps back up to a more suitable 1800m and the 2 kg claim clinches the deal. Happy to be on
Good luck if you're having a bet
A day of highs and lows yesterday - the low, Sydney in the Grand Final - they didn't show up unfortunately - that's footy. The high, another winning day at the races and things finally look like they are turning around
Yesterday's profit was a very nice 67 units meaning I'm now only 15 units down for the season. Hoping I make it 3 for 3 for the weekend today and get into profit overall. Tough day to do it though with lots of chances in many of the races. Focus is on Caulfield, they can go around at Warwick Farm without me
My best bet won again yesterday and is doing well
Caulfield Race 1 - 1 Reckless Assassin
Dropped back from 2000m to 1600m last start where she was in a race turned upside down by a mid race move by an outsider going clear of the field. Should get a good run on the pace today, steps back up to a more suitable 1800m and the 2 kg claim clinches the deal. Happy to be on
Good luck if you're having a bet
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